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| A huge part of the nation (in pink) is under a winter storm warning. |
Some changes to the forecast with this storm
are becoming apparent in New England.
It seems like the storm, and the overrunning
of warm air over cold is going to be a bit more to the north than earlier forecast.
This continues a trend with this storm we've
repeatedly seen since Friday. More and more to the north.
This change means winter storm warnings have been extended north to cover all of Vermont and New Hampshire, and more of northern New York.
Instead of two to five inches near the Canadian border of those states, it looks like it'll be more like four to ten inches.
It'll still have a high fluff factor in those regions because the forecast for temperatures only in the single numbers during Monday, the height of the storm, still hold.
The mixed precipitation that is forecast to creep north into the New York metro area and southern New England is still expected to happen for a time during this storm, but might get a tad more to the north than first thought.
Maybe as far north briefly as the Mass Pike. Still, there will be a boatload of snow in most of New England with this, including most areas hit hard by the blizzard a week ago.
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That's quite an area covered by winter storm warnings as of Sunday morning.
By my back of the envelope guess, it looks like about a 300 mile or more wide, 1,800 plus mile long stretch of the nation from Nebraska to Maine is covered by a winter storm warning.
Except for a "gap" around Chicago, which is under a more serious blizzard warning.
Perhaps 550,000 square miles is under the storm warnings. Reportedly, almost 100 million people live in the storm zone.
That's awfully impressive.
There's not much change between yesterday at this time and today regarding who gets nailed by this storm.
The only major difference is in New England, where a bigger chunk of the region will get hit. Yesterday, the computer forecasting models seemed to indicate the northwestern third of New England, meaning most of Vermont and northern New Hampshire, along with the Adirondacks, would pretty much miss out on this.
Not any more. True, way up within 20 miles of the Canadian border in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and much of Maine, they'll probably get only 2 to 5 inches of snow. But the rest of the region gets hit by 5 to 15 inches of snow with this, depending on where you are in the region.
Another interesting change is, as I've mentioned they upgraded the winter storm warning around Chicago to a blizzard warning.
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| A woman shovels snow Sunday morning in Elgin, Ill. The storm is expected to worsen in the area this afternoon. Photo by Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune. |
They'll get up to 18 inches of snow around there. The National Weather Service tells Chicago and environs that later today and tonight, "the combination of the snow and very strong winds will make travel extraordinarily dangerous."
I'm glad it's Sunday, which would reduce the chances people will get stranded for hours on Lakeshore Drive and other highways like they did during the 2011 Chicago blizzard.
Out in places like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and parts of Ohio, it was fairly warm early this morning, in the upper 20s to mid 30s, so there is some mixed precipitation. But temperatures will fall, and places that weren't getting pure snow out that way would change over very soon. Probably by the time you're reading this.
It's interesting that the snow belt areas around Buffalo, Syracuse and Rochester, New York are also under winter storm warnings for 8 to 12 inches of snow. This time, the snow has nothing to do with lake effect. It's purely the storm. Winds will come from the wrong direction for lake effect, and Lake Erie is largely frozen over, minimizing the chances for lake effect.
Later on, after the storm, there might be some lake effect snows off Lake Ontario, but nothing huge.
The closer you get to New England, the closer you get into some deep Arctic cold. A reinforcing sot of cold air came into New England late last night, keeping temperatures below zero and dropping a largely unexpected dusting to three inches of very fluffy snow in the Adirondacks and parts of northern Vermont and New Hampshire.
This entrenched cold up in New England is causing some of the greatest uncertainty with this storm.
The cold is bleeding southward, no problem. But aloft, strong winds from the south ahead of the storm will lift warm, moist air up and over the cold air.
In central New York and central New England, that warm air moving in aloft will enhance the rate of snowfall, but won't get so warm that it will change precipitation to sleet or freezing rain.
Meteorologists around New York City are coming off a tough forecast with the blizzard last week, where a slight difference in the the location of the western edge of the heaviest snow created some inaccurate forecasts for a "historic" blizzard.
The call with this storm is even tougher around New York. The National Weather Service is pretty sure, based on the projected path of the storm, that snow will go over to sleet and freezing rain in much of the New York metro area.
But precisely where in the region? Will a lot of snow pile up before the changeover? Or will it be more sleet and freezing rain? Will the storm's warm front make it as far north as Long Island, boosting temperatures into the 40s there with rain for a time?
There is a winter storm warning for most of the area, but how that winter storm will act is an open question.
I agree with the National Weather Service in the New York area to not get too hung up on the forecasted snow accumulations. Just assume the weather will be messy during the Monday morning commute, with snow, freezing rain, sleet and glop being a very good bet.
Forecasters in southern New England have a similar problem to those in New York. Snow will mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain or even rain near the southernmost coasts, and on Cape Cod and the Islands.
But any subtle shift in the path of the storm, I'm talking just a few miles, will have a huge effect on who in southern New England gets all snow, and who gets an ugly mix.
The best bet right now is anything north of the Mass Pike stays all snow, with chances of a mix, at least for a time, increasing the more south you go.
The National Weather Service's winter storm warning is going with 6 to 10 inches of snow in southeastern Massachusetts where a mix is more likely, and around a foot in the rest of Massachusetts and the northern half of Connecticut.
It won't quite be a blizzard, like last time, but it will be windy, with plenty of blowing and drifting snow, especially near the coast. So blizzard-like conditions are likely Monday. Stay home.
On the bright side, this storm won't cause the massive coastal flooding and damage we saw in New England last week. There might be some coastal flooding, but nothing on the scale we saw last Tuesday.
Up in central and northern New England, where the Arctic air is entrenched, this is going to be a very cold storm, with high temperatures Monday during the storm mostly staying between 0 and 10 above, with temperatures crashing below zero Monday night.
The expected track of the storm has edged northward since yesterday, so many of the Adirondack, Vermont and New Hampshire ski areas could get up to a foot of snow out of this.
There have been a series of many small storms, and no real thaws since early January, so the ski areas are in good shape. But this will cheer them up more, especially since no thaws are expected before the Presidents Day holiday at mid-month.
Winter storm warnings are up for the central and southern Adirondacks, the southern two thirds of Vermont and all but far northern New Hampshire.
As I noted, even the far north will get into the act, with places along the Canadian border in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire in for 2 to 5 inches of snow. Not much, but repeatedly light snows there have also built up a snowpack.
The only concern I have is that this Arctic air over northern New England is very dry. It could feed into the storm system and really cut back on expected snow accumulations. That's something we have to watch. We don't want to get the winter sports fans all excited, then disappoint them with a paltry snowfall.
The southeastern half of Maine is in for it with this storm, and the don't need it. They got about two feet of snow during last Monday and Tuesday's blizzard, and another 6 to 12 inches Friday and Saturday.
Many of these areas can expect six to 12 inches additional snow out of this and they don't need it.
An example: I looked at Bangor, Maine. As of yesterday, there was 29 inches of snow on the ground. They've had 74.7 inches of snow so far this winter. That's a bit more than double the amount they normally have by now
A side note: With all this snow piling up in Maine, I do worry about spring flooding in parts of that state when and if it warms up toward March and April.
After this storm, I'm not seeing any more big storms, at least according to current projections, in the coming days. It'll stay cold into mid-month, with only brief spikes in temperature to near normal readings.
There will be small storms coming through, so some areas, especially the Great Lakes, northern New York and northern New England, can expect light snowfalls every other day, or every third day coming up after this storm.
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