Will Vermont See A Rare 100 Degree Day Today?

Will it get to 100 degrees today in Burlington, Vermont?

As we said yesterday, today is going to be terribly hot across Vermont and surrounding areas.  Pretty much everybody will be in the 90s, and the whole state is under a heat advisory, except the extreme northeast corner of the state.

The speculation has started on this one: Will Burlington, Vermont reach a rare 100 degrees today?

It's only been 100 degrees in Burlington four times since they started keeping track of this stuff in the late 1800s.

Those times were:

100 degrees, July 3, 1911
101 degrees, August 11,1944
100 degrees June 19, 1995
100 degrees July 14, 1995.

Will today join this list?

The National Weather Service in South Burlington decided to pull the trigger and predict a high of 100 degrees today.  However, meteorologists at the NWS office note that some factors might prevent us from getting that hot.

It might "only" get to between 97 and 99 degrees.

Following are the factors that would encourage a reading of 100 degrees and factors that argue against it.

FOR 100 DEGREES

Computer forecast models that show a good layer of the atmosphere can support such temperatures down here near the ground.

Southwest winds that can compress the air coming down the slopes of the Adirondacks, thereby heating the air more than it would otherwise.

The air will mix well in the lower several thousand feet of the atmosphere. That would bring the humidity down a bit.  If the humidity is lower, then it can get hotter.

There should be a lot of sun this afternoon, which obviously encourages heating.

It's been dry.  Wet ground adds humidity to the air, and as noted, actual temperatures have a harder time reaching their maximum temperature with higher humidity.  All four cases in which it was 100 degrees in Burlington came during dry periods, like the one we're in.

AGAINST 100 DEGREES

Forecast models this morning indicate the airmass will be marginally cooler than forecasts issued yesterday, but by all means remain hot.

A dying mass of showers and thunderstorms in southern Quebec early this morning was keeping clouds across northern Vermont.   If clearing is delayed later this morning, it could prevent temperatures today from maxing out at their highest potential.

Will the southwest winds pick up just enough influence from Lake Champlain to cool things to just below 100 degrees?

It's also simply damn hard for temperatures to get to 100 degrees. Everything has to come together perfectly.  A few rogue fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon could easily kill chances of it getting to 100 degrees.

BEYOND TODAY

There are encouraging signs that it might stay as warm for the next week or so as initially thought.  There's going to be an ahhhhh factor here and there over the coming days.

Tonight will humid and stuffy as hell ahead of an oncoming cold front. To make sleeping more difficult, this cold front is likely to bring some scattered showers and storms overnight, especially north and west.

Storms ahead of this cold front will likely be severe this afternoon and evening across southern Ontario and western New York, but will weaken as they move into Vermont.

The actual cooler air lags well behind the cold front, so Monday will still be very warm and kind of humid, with temperatures in the 80s to possibly near 90.

Then we get into the better weather.  Dew points, a measure of how comfortably or uncomfortably humid it is out there, are expected to drop into the low 50s Tuesday.

That's the lowest they've been in weeks and definitely in the comfortable zone.

It'll probably turn vaguely humid midweek but nothing extraordinary.  The core of the nation's heat will be centered further west for awhile, temperatures will probably stay pretty close to normal for the next week or so after today's heat.

Vermont Is The New Florida - Continued

A strong thunderstorm over Lake Champlain last summer, More
potentially strong to severe storms are firing up todau. 

If the headline on this post seems familiar, it's because I wrote a similar headline in this blog thingy back in late June.

The heat and humidity has been pretty consistent since the third week in June. On and on it goes.

As uncomfortable as it is, at least there's some rain chances.  Believe it or not, that rain prospect is in part due to the influence of a possible tropical depression. or storm.  Yes, that sounds like Florida, too.   I'll get to that in a bit.

Burlington got to 89 degrees yesterday, just missing the chance to notch yet another 90 degree day this summer.  Don't worry, it looks like there will be two more days above 90 degrees this week. Um, yay?

Today would reach 90 degrees if not for a disturbance coming through that will touch off a fair numer of showers and storms.  We need the rain, still. Especially in the northwestern part of the state. Of course, the far northwest has the lowest chances of rain with this, though there's still roughly even odds.

It was frustrating here in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning with a couple flashes of lightning and claps of thunder, but the rain with that storm blew by just to my north.

The showers and storms with this incoming disturbance fired up in Quebec pretty early - before noon. They're moving southeast as of early afternoon and other pop ups are forming in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

A few storms, especially from the Champlain Valley east, could be strong or locally severe, with strong, gusty winds, hail, torrential downpours and lightning. Lightning detector maps were already showing lots of lightning as of 2 p.m. All of Vermont, New Hampshire and most of Maine is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10 p.m.

Storms should wind down this evening

ON WITH THE HEAT

The core of the latest burst of heat will be over us Thursday and Friday. Heat advisories are up in the Champlain Valley for Thursday and Friday.  And in many places around the Great Lakes and Northeast, too.

Highs will get into the 90s for most of us both days.  Humidity will be even higher than it was during that horrible June heat wave.

An interesting thing might happen with the heat Friday, and may worsen it.  A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form off the South Carolina coast soon and move northward.

It'll never get that strong, but as it approaches coastal New England Friday, it will pump up the hot ridge of high pressure over northern New England, northern New York and Quebec. That, in turn,  has the potential for boosting temperatures even higher. It's not definite, but it's possible we'll see highs in the mid to upper 90s in some of the hotter spots Friday.

It depends on clouds and the path of that tropical or subtropical system.

WAIT, TROPICAL STORM?

Yes, I did say tropical storm.  If wannabe Tropical Storm Fay develops, it would most likely track toward southeastern New England, or offshore.

It would bring a slug of torrential rains to southern and eastern New England, and perhaps some gusty winds. Wannabe Fay will probably go to far east to directly affect most of Vermont.

However, it will bring added tropical moisture into Vermont, just as another disturbance approaches for the west.

At this point, it appears this situation will give us a terribly oppressive weekend with sky high humidity. But this scenario could also give us numerous showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening, and maybe into Sunday.

The good news is if this pans out, we'll get some beneficial rains.  A bit of potential bad news is some slow moving storms this weekend could cause some local flash floods. We certainly don't know that for sure yet, but it's something to keep an eye on.

THEN DO WE GET RID OF THE HEAT?

The answer is no.  But you kind of knew that, right?

We do get a temporary reprieve.  That disturbance which could give us the rains over the weekend will probably "cool" us off to readings early next week that are only a little warmer than average. It will still be a little uncomfortable because the humidity won't totally crash. But it will definitely be better.

Not for long, it looks like. Early indications are another burst of high heat and humidity could surge into northern New England during the second half of next week.

Sigh.

Hot Times For Us Vermonters, And The Rest Of The World

Huge areas of the country, red and orange, are under
heat warnings and advisories today.

Right on schedule, the heat wave is rolling into Vermont and the rest of New England today.  If it didn't feel too bad early this morning, you're lucky. By afternoon, Ugh!

According to NOAA, 194 million Americans, or 59 percent of the nation's population, is under some sort of heat warning, advisory or watch. This figure includes everybody who lives here in Vermont.

With high temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s both today and tomorrow, it will feel like it's about 100 degrees outside. If you can, stay in the air conditioning. If you know somebody who is elderly or ill and lives in a place with no air conditioning drag them kicking and screaming if you have to into a cool place somewhere.

And let's just say that 3 p.m. this afternoon or Saturday afternoon is NOT the time to take your daily jog.

This heat looks like it will last a bit longer than originally thought. Forecasts earlier this week had a very welcome cold front coming through Saturday night. Now, it looks like it won't arrive until sometime on Sunday.

That means there is little chance for relief from cooling thunderstorms today or Saturday, though isolated ones might develop in the hot, muggy air. (In fact, as the hot air was arriving this morning, there were some thunderstorms in Quebec and a couple isolated ones zipping close to the International Border.)

There's also a chance a cluster of thunderstorms known as a mesoscale convective complex could come across southern Ontario and Quebec and affect northern Vermont overnight. That's iffy, but something to watch.

The computer models are arguing over when the cold front comes through on Sunday.  Some models suggest it will breeze through in the late morning and early afternoon Sunday.  That would mean some refreshing air late in the day, and help minimize the chance of strong thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms peak in the heat of the day in the late afternoon and evening, so an early cold front arrival would mean not as many storms.

Other computer models don't bring the cold front through until Sunday evening or night, which would mean another hot, terrible humid day with an increased chance of strong thunderstorms. I think it will take until Saturday morning for the computer models to make up their minds.

It still looks seasonably comfortable next week with highs in the 70s to around 80 and lows in the nice 50s to low 60s.

Of course, there's always the good chance of another nasty heat wave in August. They do come more frequently in this climate change world. Yesterday, as if we needed it, we got more evidence of the ongoing worsening climate change.

JUNE WORLD'S HOTTEST

According to NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information, June, 2019 was the world's hottest on record, with data going back to 1880.

NOAA says:

Hard to find any blue (cool) spots in the world in
June, 2019, the hottest on record for the world.

"The June temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.71 degrees above the 20th century average of 59.9 degrees and was the highest for June in the 1880-2019 record. June 2019 bested the previous record set in 2016 by 0.04 degrees."

The global heat has been consistent in the past four years, even more consistent than the hot years in the first decade of the 21st century. Remember, this data set goes back more than 130 years.

Since January, 2015, the "coolest" month in the rankings was April, 2015, which at the time was "only" the seventh warmest on record out of the 130+ years of data.

The ice caps were less icy than usual in June, too.  The Arctic ice extent was the second lowest for June on record, with data going back 41 years. Antarctica had the least ice for June on record, again in data going back those 41 years.

Another interesting tidbit is the hottest months on record tend to be during strong El Ninos, which give an added boost to world temperatures. June, 2019 featured a weak and fading El Nino.

One thing I'd like to address is what climate skeptics and deniers accuse people, sometimes including me,  of doing. They call it "climate ambulance chasing," as when climate activists point to heat waves like the record one in Europe in June and the relatively intense one we are now experiencing in the eastern and central United States.

These skeptics point to areas of chillier weather that don't get media attention while the hot spells do get the spotlight. 

Some showers and isolated thunderstorms zipped across
northern Vermont early Friday morning, as a warm front
marked the start of an oppressive spell of weather.

Even with climate change, you're going to get cool pockets. You'll remember that central North America was on the cold side in late winter and early spring. (And by the way, that did get media attention.)

July so far has been kind of chilly in northeastern Europe and western Russia, we've been told on Twitter. And that's absolutely true. Twitter is accurate for once.

But the warmer than normal conditions in most of the world totally overwhelm these cold pockets. I'm sure July will turn out to easily be among the world's Top 10 warmest.

The current heat wave in the United States is not the worst ever, we're again told by the skeptics. Again, that's totally true. But it's still a pretty intense, dangerous heat wave and is being pointed at as an example of what will continue to become more frequent in a warming world.

Here's another argument against the skeptics. The cold waves are indeed cold, but the heat waves are often record setting.

According to the Category 6 blog, here's an interesting factoid: Sixty-nine nations and territories have  broken or tied their all time hottest temperatures so far in 2019. The number of nations and territories that have broken or tied their all time lowest temperature? A big fat zero.

See a trend?