California Gets Blasted With Storms That Will Eventually Threaten Us

Once again, they're cleaning up the Pacific Coast Highway after
another round of mud slides and debris flows. More problems
like this are likely over the next few days as the rains continue. 

Storms coming in off the Pacific Ocean will drive a very active weather pattern that could bring us here in Vermont, one, two or several winter storms over the next two or three weeks or so.

California is really feeling the effects already.

The latest parade of storm just started hitting California, and it's a mess out there already. The first storm hit Saturday, and another one hit Monday. New storms are forecast for Tuesday, with an even bigger one coming along later Wednesday and Thursday.

Flooding, mudslides, debris flows, high winds and heavy upper elevation snow are all creating headaches in the Golden State, although all this precipitation will come in handy for water use this comign summer. 

As of Monday evening, there were mandatory evacuations from areas near where large wildfires burned in 2018.

There's nothing left to keep soil in place in these areas, so mud, rocks and debris flows are a big risk as the heavy rains take hold. Part of the Pacific Coast Highway was again shut down Sunday due to mudslides, just like it was around New Year's Day.

That's near the site of the massive Woosely Fire in November. People living in that area were told to be ready to evacuate at a moment's notice, NBC 4 in Los Angeles reported. Elderly residents, people with mobillity problems, those with medical needs and other vulnerable people were urged to get out of the area Monday, before trouble arises. 

In higher elevations, I-5 through the  Grapevine area was closed by snow and numerous cars and trucks were trapped in that area on Monday.  Further north, Interstate 80 through the Sierra Nevada mountains was closed for a time because of deep snow. At Mammoth Mountain, 4.5 feet of snow piled up. 

High wind watches and warnings were up for parts of southern California, and in the north, including the San Francisco Bay area. 

The good news is that the storms will bring several feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada mountains. That's California's water storage for the dry summer and early autumn. The Weather Channel notes that as of Jan 12, the snowpack was at least 90 percent of normal for the date, which isn't bad. This parade of storms could easily bring the snow cover above average. 

STORMS HEAD EAST

The storminess from California is heading east, and some of this will affect us here in Vermont. The details are getting a little better as to what is expected to happen, but question marks remain.

It still looks like a small storm will come by later Thursday night into Friday.  Early guesses are this will only bring us perhaps one to three inches of fluff, with maybe a bit more than that in some of the mountains.

Six to ten day outlooks shows widespread colder than
normal temperatures (in blue) coming up for
late January. 

A larger storm is still expected to hit the East Coast by later Saturday and Sunday. Again, forecasts could change dramatically, but it looks like it'll be all snow for Vermont.

How much is a huge question. It depends on the track. If it comes fairly close, say going northeastward right along or just inland fron the New England coast, we'll get quite a bit - six inches or more.

If the storm tracks further east, amounts would be less, especially to the north and west.

First guesses are this will be a cold storm. More often than not, it gets relatively mild in a midwinter Vermont snowfall.  Temperatures usually rise into the 20s during such a storm.

However, temperatures could stay in the single numbers to low teens as it snows Sunday.

Of greater importance is a very nasty weather pattern that's developing that looks like it would bring repeated blasts of intense Arctic air to us after the Sunday storm and continuing into early February.

These might not be the typical few degrees below zero at night types of things that weve gotten over the past week. These Arctic blasts have the potential at least to drop us into 20s below at night and keep readings subzero during the day. Really bad wind chills would accompany these frigid blasts as well.

How bad these outbreaks get depend upon where they cross the Canadian border into the United States. If they come in via the northern Great Plains, they might not be as bad because the air would modify some before it gets here.

If the Arctic air makes a beeline from the North Pole straight down onto northern New England, then it will be particularly bad.

Since that weather pattern is a week or more away, we'll have to wait and see how bad it gets. 

Thursday Evening Update: Historic Storm Friday In New England

Under clear, calm skies today in Scituate, Massachusetts,
there was still minor coastal flooding. When the big storm
arrives Friday and Saturday, expect devastating, record or
near record storm surges in the Northeast. Photo from
NBC10 and NECN.

Just a quick update on the massive storm about to strike New England and much of the rest of the Northeast.

This one will be a beast that will be remembered for generations to come, I think.

The worst of it still looks like it will be the enormous storm surges and battering waves that will hit the coast from the Middle Atlantic states to Maine. Southeastern New England will take the brunt.

There's an excellent chance that the storm surge heights will be at or above record levels, possibly exceeding the Blizzard of 1978 and the near record storm surges in early January. 

Like the Blizzard of '78 but unlike the January, 2018 storm, there will be three or four high tide cycles with destructive surges and waves.

Officials are advising people in coastal locations to evacuate ahead of time, so they won't get caught. Today, before the storm even wound up, there were reports of minor coastal flooding in parts of New England.

The National Weather Service in Taunton, Massachusetts is warning of tides up to five feet above normal. Whole neighborhoods might be cut off, and some houses will probably be destroyed.

There will be less snow than in the Blizzard of 1978, but whatever falls will be wet and heavy, as opposed to the powdery stuff that hit most of New England back in 1978.

The bulk of the heavy snow with this system will occur inland, and at higher elevations. The wet snow, combined with high winds, threatens massive power failures in parts of New England, New York and Pennsylvania.

This storm is going to cover an enormous area, and high winds will affect most of the East from the Carolinas north. Gusts to 50 or 60 mph will be common in most of this area, with some coastal locations going to 80 mph or more. That will cause a lot of additional damage.

This will be yet another $1 billion dollar storm, with losses from this system almost certainly exceeding that figure. Yeah, just what the nation needs. Another very expensive weather disaster.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The forecast philosophy for the Green Mountain State hasn't changed much this morning. Fortunately for us, this mega storm will cause lots of unpleasant weather. There will be damage, but nothing extreme like further south.

It's still tricky to figure out who will get mostly snow and who will get a fair amount of rain. But anywhere in the state, expect both. Unless you're pretty high in elevation. Then it will be virtually all snow.

Southern Vermont continues to be most under the gun. The southernmost two counties in Vermont are under a winter storm warning for five to 10 inches of wet snow, especially in higher elevations, combined with wind gusts to 50 mph.

That's a perfect recipe for lots of tree damage and power failures, so you want to be ready down there. I think this type of risk will extend northward into the central Green Mountains, so beware in places like eastern Rutland County or western Windsor County.

MEANWHILE, IN CALIFORNIA

California is finally getting into some storminess, which in general is good because, except for one big storm in early January, it's been dry. Many feet of snow will accumulate in the Sierra Nevada, which the state needs for its water supply.

However. And this is a big however. You might remember those big wildfires in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties during the late fall and early winter. It covered the biggest area in California history.

When that one storm came in early January, the burn scar unleashed an epic  water and debris flow that killed 23 people in and around Montecito, California.

A new storm is coming in Friday, and officials have ordered up to 20,000 people to evacuate in Montecito, Santa Barbara and other communities near the site of the massive fire in late 2017. The concern is a repeat of the deadly debris flows in January, and nobody wants to take chances.

The storm coming into California Friday is not quite as strong as the one in January, but it's dangerous enough and emergency officials don't want to take chances.

By the way, the storm coming into California tomorrow has the potential to cause mischief in our neck of the woods by the middle or end of next week.

Another Deadly Weather Disaster Now Unfolding In California

Mud inside a home in Montecito, California
this morning amid an unfolding flash flood,
mudslide and debris flow disaster. 

UPDATE: As of early afternoon Eastern Standard Time, the death toll from the mudslides and debris flows in California is now up to five.

Other people are missing. The gas main break caused by one of the debris flows also burned several homes. One witness told reporters a heartrending story of the mudslides destroying their house while they were inside.

They were rescued, and later checked on a neighbor's house. They heard a baby crying deep down in the mud. The man and rescuers retrieved and saved the baby, but nobody knows if there are other fatalities beneath the mud in that neighborhood.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

California can't catch a break.

The expected torrential rains have arrived in southern California and those rains have caused destructive and deadly mudslides and debris flows. This is especially true near the burn scars of those epic wildfires they had through 2017.

This is still breaking news, so all the details are still not out. Plus, as of 10:30 eastern time, it was still raining in California, so more trouble will be brewing.

We do know the communities of Montecito and Carpinteria, near where the gigantic Thomas fire raged through December, are particulary hard hit.

Early reports from the Los Angeles Times indicate at least one person has died in the mudslides, flash flooding and debris flows so far.

Thirty miles of the heavily traveled 101 Freeway near the site of the Thomas Fire is closed due to mudslides and debris flows. Several people were rescued from debris flows in Montecito, and a gas main break has caused at least one fire, the Los Angeles Times said. 

A rain gauge has measured five inches of rain so far in at least one recording station in the Thomas Fire burn scar.

I'm sure there will be further updates as this continues to unfold.