Severe Weather Threat In Plains, Humid Soakers, Then Changes New England

Great clouds as viewed my airplane window as I made my way back home
from South Dakota to Vermont yesterday. This view was while we were
on approach to Chicago O'Hare. 

I arrived home to Vermont last night after my nearly two weeks at my temporary headquarters in Yankton, South Dakota.

Despite the season, I didn't see much in the way of strong thunderstorm activity out there, which to me is a bit of a disappointment. (Other than that, the trip was awesome. Thanks, Modereger clan!

Of course, today, I am missing a potential severe weather outbreak in the northern and central Plains, and Yankton is under that threat area. The principal worries out there today are big hail and strong, damaging straight line winds.

Which I hope does not damage the flowers I planted at the in-law's house.

A few tornadoes are also possible, too, especially in central North Dakota and central Nebraska.

Pretty large sections of the nation are also prone to localized flash flooding, too, especially in North Dakota, a fairly big area roughly centered on Kansas City, and it the soggy Middle Atlantic States and the Southeast.

Here in Vermont, you might have notice it's rather humid out there this morning. Feels like it's going to rain, doesn't it?

Indeed, most of us will get some rain today. There were already a few showers this morning. There is some partial clearing late this morning and early afternoon. That will help destabilize the atmosphere to produce showers and thunderstorms. Especially since a cold front is heading this way from the northwest.

Often, this type of set up gets us under the gun for quite a few severe thunderstorms, but the ingredients really aren't fully there this time. A few storms in and near Vermont this afternoon and evening could briefly become strong to marginally severe, with gusty winds and maybe small hail, but I don't expect anything anywhere nearly as bad as the May 4 severe outbreak in these parts.

The air is, as I said, humid, and the showers and storms today won't be moving very fast, so a few spots will get some very heavy rain out of this.  It's also possible a few places will get something called "backbuilding" thunderstorms.

That's when a thunderstorm moves into an area. The storm then seems to be beginning to pass by to the east, but new thunderstorms develop on the back edge of the original storm. The end result is one spot gets stuck under a thunderstorm for a prolonged period of time, since new downpours keep forming in the same spot.

This can lead to flash flooding. The threat of flash flooding is low in Vermont today, since it hasn't been particularly wet this month. (unlike most of the rest of the eastern United States.) But, it's still possible there could be water problems in one or two spots in Vermont this afternoon.

This will all clear out tonight, and we're in for a pleasant weekend here in northern New England. The humidity will crash down to really comfortable levels, and daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s, with quite a bit of sunshine.

Enjoy it while you can. Much of next week looks like it will be quite cool and showery, with not much sun. It'll be typical early May weather, not early June. But that happens from time to time before summer gets into full swing. So we'll deal with it.

April Winter Goes On And On (But A Glimmer Of Hope?)

As I write this at mid-morning today, it is snowing again outside my window in St. Albans, Vermont.

Despite lingering snow on the ground and falling snow, these plants
in my St. Albans, Vermont perennial bed are giving it the old
spring college try. 

Granted, it's not really sticking, but come on! It's April 17! And this is the fourth day in a row we've had some sort of frozen precipitation.  

Plus it's incredibly soggy out there, too. In most of northern Vermont, we've had more than two inches of rain and melted snow and ice over the past six days. And it's still coming down, albeit lightly at the moment.

It's interesting that atop Mount Mansfield, snow cover has actually increased a little since the first of the month, and it will increase more this week.

On April 1, there was 80 inches of snow up there. As of yesterday, there was 88 inches. Normally, the snow cover on Mount Mansfield would be shrinking at a pretty good clip at this point.

At least yesterday's wind along the western slopes of the Green Mountains wasn't as bad as it could have been. Peak gusts reported include 72 mph in Wells, 65 mph at Breadloaf, east of Middlebury and 64 mph in Mendon. Pleasant Valley, northeast of Underhill clocked in at 59 mph.

As of mid-morning, about 1,400 homes and businesses still had no power. Not as bad or widespread as the April 4 windstorm, which is good.

Today, we'll continue on with the cold rain and wet snow, which will accumulate some in the higher elevations.

Rain and snow showers will be more scattered and lighter across Vermont Wednesday than they are today, so I guess that's a break. I suppose.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER

This week, a new storm is creating much of the same coast to coast weather misery as the last one. Just not nearly as extreme as last week, with the exception of Texas and Oklahoma and that neck of the woods. There, wildfires, already fatal and bad, will probably get even more extreme today.

Another storm, certainly weaker than the last one, is taking a somewhat similar path as the epic one the nation just had. It's coming off the lee of the Rockies in Colorado, and will trudge across the Midwest and into New England by Thursday.

Like the last storm, it's pulling extremely dry and windy air into the Southwest, where the fire danger is once again extreme today. Many of the wildfires that started out there Thursday and Friday aren't even out yet. New ones will start today, so this is awful.

Two people have already died in the fires, and there's fear today could bring more.

Next the storm goes out in the Midwest, where it collect more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and will drop the wetness, as yes, snow in those hard hit areas out there.

Incredibly deep snow drifts in the Upper Penninula of
Michigan this weekend. 

Can we just say how incredible the snow has been out there in South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan this month?

And it's sticking around, since this area has also had easily its coldest first half of April on record.  

Green Bay, Wisconsin got two feet of snow in that last storm. Amherst, Wisconsin got 33 inches.

In Sioux Falls, South Dakota, 24.9 inches of snow has fallen so far this month, making it easily the snowiest April on record. And Sioux Falls is in for two or three more inches of snow tonight and Wednesday with this latest storm.

Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings are again flying in eastern South Dakota, northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. Parts of far northern Iowa and far southern Minnesota could get eight or more inches of snow out of this.

NEXT STORM'S EFFECTS ON VERMONT

That new snowstorm from the Plains will get here on Thursday, ensuring we get a continuation of the cold wet, dreary and snowy weather we've been seeing in Vermont for all too long in April.

Originally I was thinking there would hardly be any snow coming with Thursday's system, but of course, we must get the snow, and snow we'll get!

The early thinking from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is three to five inches in the mountains and a dusting to an inch in the valleys. Most of the valley snow would come Thursday night.

Conditions should slowly improve Friday and Saturday

GLIMMER OF HOPE?

Long range forecasts are hinting at possibly warmer
than normal temperatures in the Northern Plains
and Northern New England during the closing
days of April. 

There are signs that the weather pattern is about to change somewhat, giving everybody something of a break. It'll start in the Texas and Oklahoma fire zones on Thursday, when highly welcome showers and thunderstorms are forecast.

Things will dry out and warm up in the Dakotas and Minnesota, too, so the snow will finally melt there, too.  

Finally, the weather looks like it will turn drier and sunnier with temperatures much closer to normal levels starting Sunday (Highs in the 50s. )

Despite the cold and the snow, spring is chomping at the bit. Grass is starting to green up, and against all odds, some of the daffodil and hyacinth plants in my yard have grown a bit. Lilac buds were encased in ice yesterday, but they made it through like troupers.

The warmer weather next week will surely accelerate the long-awaiting spring greening we've been pining for.