Strong Storms, Downpours To Hit Vermont, Rest Of Northeast Today

Areas in yellow face a slight chance of severe thunderstorms today. 

When I got up early this morning skies were still clear. Did that mean the expected storminess today wasn't coming?  

No and Nope.

We should expect quite a bit of  weather today. The good news is those of us who need a good rainfall looks like we'll get it.

The bad news is in some areas, it could rain too hard and cause very local flooding problems. And some storms could turn severe in central and southern areas.

A warm front was coming at us from the southwest early this morning, and that should give most of us an initial slug of rain later this morning and early this afternoon. I say most of us because radar images early this morning did detect gaps in this area of rain, so some of us might get unlucky, again.

Early this afternoon, most of us, especially areas south of Route 2 in Vermont, will get into the warm, sticky air again. The sun might also break through the clouds, which will help destabilize the air ahead of a cold front. That sets the stage for possible strong storms.

SEVERE WEATHER DETAILS

The best chances for severe storms will be central and southern Vermont, the Hudson Valley of New York, western New Hampshire, western Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut.

Not everybody will get severe storms in those zones. Most people won't. But a few towns very well could. The biggest threat from the potentially severe storms is strong straight line winds and microbursts.

There is a very, very remote chance of a brief tornado in this region. I kinda doubt there will be any, but this year has been strangely tornadic in New England, so you never know. High resolution forecast models do indicate the possibility of some embedded supercell thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.

HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING?

Areas in yellow are under a slight risk of excessive rain and
possible very local flash flooding. 

The next issue is rain. Many of us should expect anywhere between a half inch and an inch and a half of rain.

That's a good thing in northern Vermont, which is still quite dry. I do worry about particularly parched far northwestern Vermont, because some of the models indicate lighter amounts of rain there.

Still, anywhere that gets a particularly torrential downpour today could see local flash flood issues. That would involve small streams and creeks in mountainous areas, and streets with poor drainage in urban areas.

Widespread flooding is unlikely.

The places with the best chances of local flooding include all of Vermont, the eastern half of New York, northwestern New Hampshire and northern Maine. Again, almost everybody in this area will escape flooding. But there might be issues in a couple spots within this area.

WILL 80 STREAK END?

The record long streak of 80 degree days looks like it will come to an end today or tomorrow in Burlington. We squeaked out another 80 on Thursday, which brings the Queen City to a record 29 days in a row with temperatures at or above 80.

If enough sun breaks through the clouds between showers today, there might be another 80 today. I give it a 50/50 shot. Saturday looks cooler, with an expected high of 77 degrees. All good or bad things, depending on your perspective, must come to an end, right?