One More Day Of Heat, And A Severe Storm Threat To Top It Off

Area in yellow is under a slight risk of severe storms this afternoon
and evening.

UPDATE 10 a.m: Since this was posted, the slight risk of severe thunderstorms has been extended into much of northern Maine.

There is a bit of a possibility of a few supercells, which have the very, very slight risk of spinning off a tornado or two.

As I mention below, this twister risk is very low, but not zero. The main threat continues to be damaging straight-line winds.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

The only part of the country that has more than a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today is far northern New York, Vermont north of Route 2, and the northern tip of New Hampshire.

This "lucky" region stands a somewhat stronger chance of severe storms today.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this northern border region under a slight chance of severe weather.  That means forecasters think there will be scattered severe storms in this region. Marginal risk means there might just be a couple isolated briefly severe storms.

First we have to get through this incessant heat that is stifling us. Yesterday, the temperature in Burlington reached 92 degrees, the 14th time this year readings have gotten to 90 or above. (The record for the most 90s is 26 in 1949.)

Worse, the humidity yesterday was horrible. With dewpoints in the low 70s, it felt like it was nearly 100 degrees. Today will be no different, with heat advisories up for Champlain Valley and the valleys of southwestern and southeastern Vermont. It'll feel like it's nearly 100 degrees this afternoon, for the second day in a row

Those heat advisories today, by the way, extend from Virginia to Maine, with a more dire excessive heat warning in parts of southern New England. Under the excessive heat warning zone, air temperatures could feel as hot as 110 degrees.

The humidity this summer is what has really killed us. One hint of this is how warm the nights have been, Nights tend to be warmer on humid nights than during periods of when the air is drier. Those warm nights wear us out. In Burlington so far this summer, the low temperature never got below 70 degrees on 17 nights so far.

The persistence of the heat has wilted us, too. From June 29 to August 16, the temperature in Burlington, Vermot got to 80 degrees or more on 47 out of 49 days.

The cold front coming our way will bring temporary relief, but first we have to get through those storms today and the first half of tonight.

Not everyone will get a storm, which is actually too bad because pretty much everybody needs the rain. And some places that get showers or storm will get only light rainfall.

Only a handful of places from the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, across northern Vermont into New Hampshire will get severe, damaging storms.

In this area, there is actually a very, very, very slight, but not zero chance of a tornado. However, the biggest threat from any severe storm that might develop are strong straight line winds. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning and torrential rains are also a definite risk.

If you're outdoors or especially out on the lake today, take shelter at the first sign of threatening weather. Better yet, blow off the outdoor activities until tomorrow, when the weather will be much nicer. And cooler.

We're in the closing days of August, so cooler days are a bit more brisk than they would have been in mid-summer. So as skies gradually clear and the humidity crashes tomorrow, expect afternoon highs only in the low to mid 70s, with some upper 60s along the ridgelines.

After a refreshingly cool Thursday night and a gorgeous Friday, it looks like humidity will return over the weekend, but it won't be as hot as it is today or was yesterday.