Former (Maybe Still) Tropical Storm Bill Keeps Causing Havoc

On radar, Bill still looked like a pretty well
organized tropical system over Texas early
this morning. (Click on image to make
it bigger and easier to see.)  

I think Dr. Marshall Shepherd is turning out to be right, regarding super wet, super flood produccing Tropical Storm Bill.

He's the co-author of that study I referenced the other day when I was talking about Tropical Storm Bill.

He and co-author Theresa Anderson said that sometimes, a tropical storm moving well inland over the southern Plains from the Gulf of Mexico can maintain, or even strengthen, under certain conditions.

Normally, tropical storms weaken and fall apart once they move inland, but under these rare conditions, they can maintain their strength as they move over very wet ground.

If the ground is wet enough, it can feed a tropical system much like the ocean does.  Marshall calls this the "Brown Ocean Effect" and he speculated before Bill even formed that this could happen with this tropical storm.

Based on the way weather radar, satellite and conditions on the ground, I think the "Brown Ocean Effect" is indeed keeping Bill alive.

Side note: "Brown Ocean Effect" has become the meteorological/media buzzword of the year. All the media outlets have picked up on this. Let's hope it doesn't become the (inaccurate) buzzword for every wet storm going over wet ground. We don't want this to be another polar vortex fad.

Officially, Bill has been downgraded to a tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds of under 39 mph.

But radar images from early this morning showed a pretty symetrical swirl of heavy rain over east central Texas.  Bill still looks very much like a tropical storm. Winds are still relatively hefty.

Early this morning, Mexia, Texas reported winds of 29 mph gusting to 48 mph close to the center of Bill.

Of course, wind was never the main threat from Bill. Flooding was and is.

Bill came ashore yesterday in southeastern Texas with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Flash flood warnings were up for parts of Texas this morning, and flood watches were in effect for a bitg swath of the south central United States.

This morning, Bill was moving north through Texas. Cities like Dallas, Oklahoma City and Tulsa are under the gun today, with rainfall in many areas of eastern Texas and Oklahoma in for six inches or more of rain.

This falling on saturated soil will continue the high risk of flooding in these areas.

The remnants of Bill will continue on into the soggy Ohio Valley, threatening flooding there.

And, for the rest of today, at least, it will be interesting to see how the "Brown Ocean Effect" will influence the strength and flooding destruction potential of Bill.