All In All, A Very Good NWS Winter Storm Forecast

This is the forecast map issued early Tuesday morning
for the storm that started Tuesday afternoon and ended
Wednesday. Orange areas show the most snow, blue
the least. At this point, NWS meteorologists were expecting
as little as five inches of new snow in the blue areas
ad up to a foot in the dark orange ones. 

Today is the pick of the month as far as I've concerned for this February's weather.

We're coming off a winter storm that at least in central and northern sections, gave us Vermonters a nice fresh dump of powder.

It has been gorgeous out there this Thursday afternoon, with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and temperatures near or just below freezing. Toasty enough to keep you warm but cool enough to keep the snow conditions perfect for winter sports.

If you're going to love something this Valentine's Day, love today's weather. And your honey, of course.

Speaking of perfect, it's time to look at how the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont did with their very challenging forecast for the snow and sleet storm, which ended yesterday.

Forecasts for snow amounts in a region are never, ever completely right. Things always vary from one town to the next. However, in this forecast, at least in the broad brush, the NWS got it right.

Meteorologists said ahead of the storm the most snow would fall in the northern Green Mountains, (especially the eastern slopes,) the northern Champlain Valley and the St. Lawrence Valley of New York. That's pretty much what happened.

You can see for yourself: The top map is what the NWS was forecasting for our area early Tuesday morning, hours before the snow started. The lower map in this post is what really happened.

Here's a map of the actual snow totals from the storm
Tuesday and Wednesday. Darkest orange represents about
a foot of snow, other orange areas got 8-12 inches.
Blue areas got four to six inches of accumulation.

Aside from the areas that got the most snow, also notice the lower amounts along the Connecticut River Valley and the west slopes of the southern and central Green Mountains. That had been forecast well in advance.

The southern two counties of Vermont got less snow than predicted, mostly because of some extra sleet and freezing rain involved. The NWS office in Albany, New York, not the South Burlington NWS issues forecasts for the far southern end of Vermont.

That's not to say the NWS office in Albany is worse than South Burlington. By my estimation, they're equally good. It's just that Albany was slightly off in southern Vermont this time.

The next storm, tomorrow, won't have as much precipitation. There might be  dusting to two inches of snow in the valleys and up to two to four inches of snow in the mountains. Snow will change to rain in the valleys tomorrow as it warms up. There will be gusty winds from the south Friday, especially in the Champlain Valley.

For those of you sick of storms, there might be a decent dry spell Saturday through Wednesday. There is the danger we could get a snowy surprise in that time frame, but right now it looks like there will be little or no precipitation in that time frame.

It will be colder starting Saturday than it was today, so I hope you enjoyed the outdoors this afternoon!

Vermont Weather All Over The Place Rest Of Week, Including Some Bad News

With at least a foot of snow on the ground  in St. Albans, Vermont
and morning temperatures well below zero, our back deck was
not exactly an inviting place for breakfast al fresco, but
at least the sun was shining brightly. 

This  morning was Vermont's coldest of the winter so far, at least west of the Green Mountains.

We surely know cold air was in place heading into last night, as Monday's high temperatures topped out within a few degrees either side of zero.

Overnight, the coldest places were not really were they usually are.

For temperatures to really bottom out, you need light winds. Breezes help keep nightime temperatures up a bit.

Those bitter north winds we endured Monday kept going all night east of the Green Mountains, but slackened off in the wee hours of the morning west of the Greens.

The result was those traditional cold spots in the Northeast Kingdom stayed relatively warm. By that I mean it "only" got down to between 8 and 15 below - not a big deal for them.

The light winds, clear skies and an 18 inch snow cover in Burlington allowed temperatures to get to a frigid 16 below. That's easily the coldest morning of the year. Today was also the fourth consecutive day of subzero temperatures.

The coldest reading I saw this morning so far was 27 below at Saranac Lake New York.

The good news is today was the last subzero day for a little while in Vermont. The bad news is our nice deep powdery snow is going to get hit with some rain and freezing rain.

I know winter sports types like this powder, and the prospect of rain and ice is not good. But think of it this way:  During the upcoming rain, it won't get warm enough for that much snow to melt. Most of the rain will soak into the powder. That will establish a much deeper base on which more powdery snow will fall.

Depending on the eventual conditions and whether we eventually get more thaws, this could be good. A thick base of compacted snow could extend the winter sports season further into the spring than it otherwise would be.

Of course, I'm not happy about the prospect of more ice underfoot. It's already slippery beneath the snow. Compacted snow has turned to ice in my driveway, sidewalks, parking lots etc. The last thing I want is more ice to slip and fall down on.

But that's what we'll get. Now I'll get into the details:

REST OF TODAY: At least the sun is out, which helps. These bitter subzero readings are rapidly evaporating, and we should get to around 10 above this afternoon. That's still cold, but nothing like the misery of yesterday's 20 to 30 below wind chills and blowing snow. So enjoy!

TONIGHT: Clouds and wind will increase. Blowing snow will once again start to become a problem in the Champlain Valley as the south winds blow, especially late. Some snow showers might sneak in toward morning, too.

WEDNESDAY: Here's where it gets ugly. Early on, winds will keep blowing the snow around. Falling snow will turn to sleet, freezing rain and maybe rain west of the Green Mountains.  It's been so cold that even where temperatures rise above freezing, any rain that does fall will still freeze on cold surfaces, like your driveway or sidewak or the roads. It will get very slippery.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Air temperatures will stay near or above freezing as the rain continues to fall. The best chance of freezing rain will be east of the Green Mountains, where up to a tenth of an inch of glaze might accumulate on trees and power lines. A couple power outages might happen, but I don't think it will be widespread.

West of the Greens, it will be a plain rain. Again, due to the cold weather we've just had, the rain will freeze on many driveways, sidewalks and other cold surfaces.

THURSDAY: Rain will change to snow, then taper off as a cold front comes through and temperatures fall. We won't get much snow out of this -- mostly a dusting to two inches, with maybe a little more in the mountains.

FRIDAY: A normal Vermont January day for once! We'll have clouds, some snow showers around, and near average high temperatures in the 20s.

SATURDAY: Briefly colder with more chances of snow showers.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND: Really uncertain. There will be chances of snow Sunday and early next week. At this point, it doesn't look super cold through Tuesday, but things could change as the weather pattern stays active.

Vermont Snow To Get A Little Boost, No Blockbuster

Web cam image this morning from Winhall, in far southern Vermont.
Road looks icy as freezing rain falls south of a Rutland- White River
Junction line. This should end this afternoon.

We're into the heart of a Vermont winter now. Peak season for winter sports is now into perhaps the middle of March.

Not everybody wants snow, but there are plenty of people itching for it. I still don't see any blockbuster snows coming, but we're going to get flurried to death over the next several days. 

Which is good news for skiers and riders, and in a few places snowmobile enthusiasts. Most of the upcoming snow will come down in the mountains, with scant accumulations in most valleys.

Snow cover in Vermont is not that deep at all for this time of year, especially compared to the thick accumulations we had at the end of November, before some thaws arrived.

Parts of north-central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont have six to 12 inches of snow on the ground, enough for snowmobiles and cross-country skiers. But other areas, like the Champlain Valley, lowlands in southwestern Vermont and the lower Connecticut River Valley, have much less than that.

Higher elevations and areas that already have a relatively decent snow cover look like they will get more over the next week, but areas that don't have much snow are kind of out of luck: They might get some more snow, but nothing to do happy backflips over.

Plus, there is threats of rain here and there, but it won't amount to much in most places.

Early this morning, freezing rain was falling in far southern Vermont, which I admit is pretty ugly. And bad for the slopes. The relatively good news is that icy rain will not move too much further north, but could briefly get as far north as Rutland and White River Junction later this morning. n

It was warm yesterday, and some of the thin snow cover in the valleys melted. But there's still a little cover yet. Today will be slightly cooler and cloudier than yesterday, so there won't be much more melting.

A cold front will breeze through tomorrow. While atmospheric dynamics are great for snowfall with this thing, there isn't much moisture available. Northern and central Vermont valleys can expect a dusting to as much as two inches, while mountains might pick up three or four inches.

This will be really fluffy stuff. Feathers, basically.

A slightly more substantial system will come in Monday night and early Tuesday. This will be good for a least one to three inches of new snow, with a little more in the mountains. It'll get warm again, so some rain will come in toward the end Tuesday morning in the valleys.

After that, temperatures drift downward again and snow showers will continue through Thursday. Once again, the valleys will only get bits and pieces of accumulations, while the snow will continue to slowly pile up in the mountains.

Again, flurried to death. The snow in the mountains will continue to build up slowly but steadily through the week. In the valleys? Meh.

Midwinter Snow Conditions In Vermont Finally About To Melt Away

Still looked like mid-winter in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard yesterday, March 26, but a lot of this snow will
disappear this week. Which is good, because there's
a perennial bed under the snow in the foreground. 

For skiers and riders in Vermont, March is a wildcard. In some years, like the torrid 2012, record warmth ends the season way too early for some enthuisasts.

Other years, like this one, are glory days for skiers and riders. The mountains pretty much had nice midwinter conditions almost all month, without the slush and puddles and melting snow like many Marches.

The snow was deep, the temperatures were comfortable, what was not to love? Us valley dwellers who aren't as into winter sports were complaining, but oh, well.

Those happy days of winter sports will start to diminish today, as the first significant spell of seasonable warm weather arrives in the North Country.

Don't worry, some ski areas will surely continue will into spring. A few likely past Mother's Day. But the thaw is commencing.

Yesterday and today, I'm betting the sap was, and is, flowing like gangbusters from the sugar maples. Good news for the maple industry. It ain't over yet, as the general weather pattern forecast favors temperatures that won't premature end the sugaring season.

Still, we've got several days of warm-ish temperatures and periods of rain to get through. In places like the Champlain Valley, most of the snow will disappear, so you'll have to put those cross-country skis away.

The first round of rain, tonight, will come down lightly. And actually change to snow for a time in the mountains. But accumulations will be light, and the warmth will resume tomorow.

Temperatures will range in the upper 30s and 40s in the mountains daily through Friday with 50s in many valleys. Another, somewhat bigger round of rain is likely to come in Thursday afternoon and night to wash more snow away. It won't be an extreme storm, but it also won't snow.

Thawing can mean flooding, but in this case, it doesn't look very worrisome. The warmth isn't extreme - it can get into the 70s this time of year, but this time it won't anywhere close to that. And the rain later this week won't be heavy. Most of us will get less than half an inch.

Rivers will rise around Vermont and the rest of the North, but any flooding looks like it will be minor.

As far as you skiers and riders go, we might be finished with powder days, but don't worry, your season is not over. There will be quite a lot of snow left over in the mountains after this thaw. And it looks at this point like the first ten days or so of April will generally be colder and wetter than normal in the Northeast

That almost certainly means additional snowfalls, especially in the mountains during the first half of April. And the remaining mountain snowpack during the opening days of April likely won't diminish much more.

Power Failures Hit As Surprising Amounts Of Snow Fall In Vermont High Spots

From Twitter: Rina Knapp snapped this
midwinter looking photo at Mad River Glen
in Vermont on Friday. 

It snowed again Friday in parts of Vermont and surrounding states, and some of the high elevations picked up some incredible amounts of snow in one week.

At least by October standards.

Jay Peak had about 30 inches of new snow since last Saturday. The Bolton Valley Ski Area had at least 19 inches.

That would represent a pretty golden week in the middle of winter, never mind October.

Although only one Vermont ski area has officially opened (Killington) a lot of people hiked up to the the summits to enjoy some very early season skiing.

The snow came at a price for some people. At mid elevations, the latest dump of snow deposited three to six inches of slush in some spots.

Due to what had been a very warm autumn up until a week ago, there's still a lot more leaves on the trees than there normally are at the end of October.

I can't believe how many colorful sugar maple leaves are still up around my St. Albans, Vermont house at the cusp of Halloween, though only traces of snow fell on my relatively low elevation property over the past week. I've never seen such decent fall foliage so late in the season.

Generally, lower elevations across the North Country did not receive any unusual amounts of snow for October. Just typical Vermont stuff.

Higher up in elevation, the wet snow collected on all those remaining leaves, and that tugged down trees, branches and power lines.

Green Mountain Power reported as many as 32,000 homes and businesses in Vermont without power at various times Thursday night and Friday.

Had the leaves been off the trees, I'm sure the power failures would have been much fewer and farther between.

We're now about to get into a warmer and somewhat drier pattern, so this early shot of love for snow enthusiasts is just about over. (There might have been a little snow falling on the mountain peaks this morning, but it would change to rain.)

The snow lovers will cry to see all their high elevation snow melt, but they'll surely get their chance later this winter.

With the weather turning a bit milder again, it looks like we can finish putting our gardens to bed and buttoning up for the winter without battling snow and bone chilling winds. That will be a nice reprieve.