Transition Out Of Heat Brings Vermont/Northeast Severe Risk Today

This image from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
shows much of Vermont and New York under a slight risk
of severe storms today (areas in yellow).

Today will be the last day of the unseasonable, record breaking  heat and humid that has enveloped northern New England and southern Quebec.

The price for this transition will be the risk of severe thunderstorms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a large chunk of the interior Northeast away from the coast under a slight risk of severe weather. This includes all of Vermont except basically the Connecticut River Valley, which is under a marginal risk.  

A slight risk for severe storms is level two out of five on the alert scale for dangerous weather. A slight risk means that scattered severe storms are possible, but they would generally be not terribly long lived. An isolated intense storm could develop, too.

I'm thinking it's possible part of the slight risk zone could go up a step to number three on the alert level, which is "enhanced" risk.  That would mean a somewhat more widespread outbreak.  I would emphasize this idea of an upgrade to level three enhanced is JUST speculation on my part and NOT part an official National Weather Service forecast.

One thing that would help big storms get going is if sunshine  between now and early this afternoon helps destabilize the atmosphere. Satellite images early this morning showed a fair number of breaks in the clouds over Vermont and upstream in New York.

The main risks with today's severe weather threat in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeastsare strong straight line winds and downbursts.  These could be enough to cause local damage to trees, power lines and maybe even structures.  Most of us won't see anything that bad, but a lot of us will hear thunder, see lightning and probably get a gusty downpour or at least a shower our of it.

There is even a remote chance of a brief spinup tornado once again from around Montreal south through the Champlain Valley and on down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians all the way to North Carolina.

There is some spin - changing wind direction with height - that could create some rotating thunderstorms. Remember, though: Just because a thunderstorm is spinning doesn't always mean it will produce a tornado. It's something to watch today, just in case.  Don't count on a tornado, though. It's a very, very low chance.

Another thing to consider today is the risk of so-called training thunderstorms. That's when a line of thunderstorms, like boxcars on a train track, go over the same spot over and over again. These storms can cause torrential rains and flash flooding.

The risk of this happening today is fairly low, because it's been so dry lately.  It would take a helluva lot of rain to set off a flash flood. It's still one more thing to keep an eye on, though.

There will probably be several rounds of showers and storms this afternoon and tonight affecting different parts of the state at different times.  Storms will probably start to ramp up in New York State by early afternoon and spread eastward into Vermont.

Everybody will get rain, but there will be winners and losers. Some places will get a nice, needed soaking and a few places will get a pathetic light showering. It's a crap shoot that's impossible to predict in advance. I'm rooting for a nice drenching here in dusty St. Albans, Vermont.

All this will leave us with cooler and drier weather on Saturday. A second cold front will pass through Saturday evening. It will turn quite chilly for the opening days of June, as has been advertised for days now.

A few places might not get past 60 degrees for highs Sunday and Monday, which is a far cry from the 90s earlier this week.  Also, if there are clear skies on any of these nights, a few colder spots would be at a risk of frost.  Most of us will be fine, though.