Tornado Risk Escalates In Mid-South; Gusty Storm Due In Vermont, Too.

There is yet another risk of tornadoes today in parts of the Mid-South
The greatest risk, in the yellow cross hatch area, appares to be in
the western half of Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, southern Illinois
and the southeast corner of Missouri. 

Yesterday, I speculated about the rest of the tornado season in the United States, given the fact that we're off to a bad start.

It's looking like things escalated in that department are escalating today.  At least potentially.

There's a pretty good risk of tornadoes, some potentially strong, in much of Kentucky, and in southern Illinois and Indiana and northwestern Tennessee.

Tennessee, of course, is still reeling from a deadly March 3 tornado outbreak, so I'm sure this makes them nervous.  The Nashville area that was hit earlier this month is in the tornado risk zone, but not in the heart of it. Places north of Nashville are.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says thunderstorms should generate in Missouri later this morning and then get stronger by the time they get into western Kentucky by early afternoon.

Strong jet stream winds over the area, wind directions changing with height, plenty of moisture from the south and atmospheric instability should create conditions favorable for strong thunderstorms and tornadoes in the area I described above during the afternoon and evening.  A couple tornadoes could br quiet strong.  If that happens, let it be over rural areas instead of cities and suburbs like earlier in the month.

By tomorrow, there should be a much lower risk of tornadoes in the United States. But a new system might create a low,  but not zero chance of twisters in a small area of western Texas. That should not be a huge deal, however.

The parent storm that helping to produce today's tornado risk is actually just developing in the western Great Lakes. It'll move into Ontario and the western Quebec over the next few days. The storm's cold front will bring a bout of raw, windy weather to us Vermonters Friday.

There could be some mixed precipitation, especially east of the Green Mountains early Friday, which could affect the morning commute.  Gusty south and southeast winds are also expected in much of Vermont Friday, which could bring some isolated power outages.

It won't be a massive wind storm by any means, but a few favored places, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts as high as 50 mph Friday.

It'll rain area wide on Friday after any mixed precipitation ends, but it won't be enough to cause any flooding of note.  There has been a fair amount of snowmelt and the Friday rain will add to the runoff. But it won't be enough to make rivers overflow to any real extent.

This sounds to be like it'll be typical March ickiness.  On the bright side, there is a 0% chance of any tornadoes in Vermont this week. But you knew that already.

Bit Of A Severe Storm Threat In Vermont, New York Today

Areas in yellow stand a slight chance of getting severe
thunderstorms this afternoon. This includes parts
of western Vermont. 

There's a chance of some severe thunderstorms today in parts of our region, especially around southern Vermont and eastern New York from about Ticonderoga south.

Not everybody is going to get a severe storm, but a few places might.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says the best chance of severe weather - a slight chance -  runs from Addison and Rutland counties in Vermont southwestward through eastern and central New York and then down into central Pennsylvania.

In this zone, a few storms could produce gusty winds, hail, and torrential downpours. Within this slight risk zone, there is even a miniscule chance of a tornado or two. But don't hold your breath on that prospect.

I'll stress that most of Vermont and New York will just get showers and garden variety thunderstorms today. Only a few places will get scary storms.  In fact, there's still a chance we'll get lucky and see absolutely no severe weather.

And no, we can't tell you in advance which towns get the scary storms and which towns just get May showers.

One thing that might inhibit the development of severe storms is overcast skies ahead of the expected storms. Sunshine would have increased atmospheric instability, which would help with the development of storms.

Also, an initial band of showers coming into eastern New York late this morning and Vermont by around noon could also help quash storms later.

However, there's plenty of cold air aloft and a weather disturbance coming in from the west, so that could help set up some pretty good activity.

There is a weather model called the HRRR which forecasts conditions over the next few hours. It's usually relatively accurate with predicted showers and thunderstorms in the near term, but of course it's not perfect.

The HRRR has that initial band of showers and maybe embedded thunderstorms coming into Vermont by noon.

Following that, the HRRR depicts a stronger band of thunderstorms forming in central New York and then moving into central Vermont around 4 or 5 p.m today.  For what it's worth, this forecast model has the strongest storms late this afternoon very roughly within 30 miles of a line from Middlebury to St. Johnsbury.

Within this zone, there could be some locally very heavy rain. Widespread flash flooding is NOT expected, but there could be a couple trouble spots with water here and there if the rain is particularly heavy in a few towns.

Remember, that forecast is NOT a guarantee and NOT set in stone. It's just a general idea. Could come true, or maybe not.

Your best bet today is just to keep an eye on the sky and head indoors if you hear thunder or see dark clouds gathering to your west and south.

By the way, there's also a very good chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, too.  A few of the storms could be on the strong side, but most won't be.

Leading Edge Of Oncoming Storm Is Snowy

Snow accumulating in Red Hook, New York this morning. 

That well-anticipated storm system was spreading precipitation into New York and southwestern New England this morning, and some of that precipitation is snow. 

Snow was pretty widespread in central New York and Connecticut at mid-morning, and as the storm pushes east and north, other areas of New England, including much of Vermont, could get a burst of snow at the onset of the storm.

A high pressure system in southeastern Canada pushed cold, dry air into the Northeast. The weak sun is pushing temperatures above freezing ahead of the storm.

However, the first bits of precipitation coming from the storm will evaporate in the atmosphere as it falls into the dry air.

When water evaporates, it cools the air. So when more precipitation comes in behind the evaporated stuff,  what would have been rain might come down as snow because of the newly chilled air.

Don't be surprised if you see snow at the onset of the bad weather as it moves into northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire during the day today.  Even some of the "warmer" valleys might get some flakes, but places above, say, 1,500 feet above sea level could easily get some accumulation.

Perhaps even a couple inches of sloppy, slushy snow in spots. Mountain peaks above three or four thousand feet in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains could get well over six inches of snow.

Even not so high elevation places, such as eastern Chittenden, Addison and Franklin counties a few miles away from Lake Champlain, stand a good chance of a slushy coating.

Be prepared for slippery roads on your evening commute today if your travels take you through high elevations. As it looks now, low elevation roads should be just wet.

Warmish air is pushing in with the heart of the storm, so snow will change to rain everywhere overnight tonight except in the very highest elevation

Big Severe Weather Outbreak In Nation's South, Central Areas Today

Severe storm in Oklahoma last night as
the current severe weather outbreak got underway.  

UPDATE; Those tornadic supercells and storms I worried would form ahead of the main band of storms with the current severe outbreak appeared to be forming as of noon.

Tornado warnings were beginning to sprout in storms east of teh squall line in eastern Arkansas and western Mississippi.

The threat of tornadoes will grow over the next couple of hours.

Already, we have at least one tornado death to report, unfortunately, in Ashdown, Arkansas.

We hope things don't get any deadlier.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Early Monday morning, there was a tornado watch covering most of Arkansas, northern Louisiana and part of East Texas.

That's pretty unusual since most tornadoes come in the afternoon and evening. Plus, October isn't really prime season for tornadoes.

Spring is the big tornado season.

But every once in awhile, you get a really dynamic, energetic storm system in the autumn, and you get a widespread severe weather outbreak. That's what's happening today.

This spell of dangerous weather actually started yesterday and especially last evening. There were more than 80 reports of damaging winds and big hail, mostly in Texas and Oklahoma, but extending as far east as Tennessee and Alabama. Winds gusted into the 75 to 80 mph range in a few Southern Plains towns.

Today, things will get worse. 

There was a wicked squall line with severe storms in western Arkansas and northeastern Texas early Monday morning. That will move east today, bringing a threat of widespread strong winds and damage all the way into Tennessee.  If anything, the storms along the squall line will get stronger as the day goes on.

Straight line winds are the main threat today, but that's as big a threat as tornadoes, as we saw with a microburst in Massachusetts last week.

Still, some of the storms in the squall line will start to spin, creating the risk of tornadoes. And a few supercell storms might get going ahead of the squall line, and those could create a couple strong, long lasting tornadoes.

So the southern Mississippi Valley is kind of screwed today. People living there ought to look to the skies, and take any storms they see coming seriously. It'll also be a good idea to keep a weather radio or other media handy so you can hear warnings right away.

The severe weather will continue on into the southeastern United States for Tuesday. As dangerous as the weather will be there, the strong winds and tornadoes won't be quite as widespread as today.

In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rains are likely in a lot of the storms in and around Tennesee, so flash flooding is going to be a problem in some spots.

The storm system causing all the rough weather will only trudge slowly toward the northeast, so wet weather won't hit the East Coast until the Wednesday through Friday time frame.  There could be areas of heavy rain when this hits the East, but there will only be a few severe storms, I think.

As I noted, big tornado and severe weather outbreaks aren't that common in the fall, but they do happen. Just last November, a flurry of severe tornadoes caused widespread destruction in the Midwest.

In that outbreak 73 tornadoes caused 11 deaths across the Midwest.

Here's a video of the storms as they developed in Kansas last night. Looks like quite a bit of hail:

Don't Let The Showers Fool You: Fire Danger Is High

We just endured a flood last week. The soil out there is still damp and wet. It rained in much of of the Northeast the past couple of days. There was even hail and thunderstorms on Cape Cod Wednesday.  

A firefighter works to extinguish a forest fire
near Bristol, Vermont last spring. The fire
danger is high again in the Northeast today.  

No need to worry about brush and wildfires here fire, right?

Wrong, wrong WRONG! Very wrong.

This time of year, there's lots of dry, dead stuff from last summer. Things haven't really greened up yet, so that dry, dead stuff can fuel dangerous brush and forest fires.

And never mind that it rained yesterday or the day before. This stuff dries out quickly in the April sun. (There's no leaves on the trees yet to shade this dry dead material in the fields and on forest floors. )

All it takes is weather like that forecast today and you can get big fires quickly.  Those fires can spread to houses and other buildings pretty fast.  We had days last spring when forest and brush fires damaged a couple buildings in Vermont, and threatened many more.

Across the Northeast, it's going to be sunny and windy today. The humidity is going to be very low.  Sometimes, in April, humidity here can drop to desert-like levels because there is no foliage to add moisture to the air.

The result is, there is a very high fire danger across most spots from Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont all the way down into the Mid-Atlantic states.  Red flag warnings and special weather statements are up across the region warning of the fire danger.

Today is NOT the day to burn your brush pile. Or carelessly throw cigarette butts out your car window. Or for children to play with matches.

These fires can get surprisingly big and fast. Just the other day near St. Johnsbury, Vermont, despite rain a few days earlier, a nine-acre brush fire threatened electric transmission lines and a neighborhood. 

So, don't be careless with fire. And let that brush pile sit until it rains again. Which will probably be this weekend.