Sunday Vermont Storm Update: Still Oddly Uncertain

The latest snow accumulation map looks light, but looks are deceiving.
Those expected three or four inch totals in the eastern half of
Vermont for today involve heavy, wet snow, sleet and
freezing rain. It could be enough to trigger scattered power failures.

As precipitation began moving into southern Vermont this Sunday morning, there were still a lot of question marks as to how this storm would behave.

We knew this would be a hard storm to forecast, but this is ridiculous.

I'm not faulting meteorologists who are monitoring the storm. I'm faulting the storm, which is a supremely tricky one to forecast.

Overall, forecasts have cut back since yesterday on expected accumulations. A winter weather advisory is up south and east of very roughly a Middlebury to Newport line in Vermont today.

Precipitation types will be tricky in the advisory area.  It seems like there might be a little more sleet and freezing rain thrown in than earlier expected. With temperatures expected to be near or just a smidge above freezing in most spots, exactly what will fall from the sky today is questionable. Expect surprises.

There's still going to be wet snow in this zone, too, especially this afternoon, when winds turn a bit more northerly, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. Those under the winter weather advisory should get three to five inches of wet snow, sleet and ice, which is enough to cause some scattered power failures.

Further north and west, in the Champlain Valley, the forecast is equally tricky, though we know precipitation will be lighter there.  The questions are: Will the moisture streaming in from the storm be enough to overcome the dry air in place? Or will much of the oncoming precipitation dry up before it gets here.

The current forecasts call for an inch or two of schmutz in the Champlain Valley today, with a mix of rain, sleet and wet snow expected. It's not a huge storm here at all, but could cause some travel issues, and make Sunday afternoon a good time to stay indoors and watch football or something.

Things clear out tonight. We'll actually get a couple days of relatively mild weather (highs in the 40s) before winter returns with a windy rain storm, and an even windier and much colder Thanksgiving.  Rapidly falling temperatures and numerous snow showers on Thanksgiving will make the roads iffy, too. Oh, joy!