Here We Go Again: More Vermont Winter Weather

This morning's take from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
as to how much snow they think will fall tomorrow. Central and northeastern
Vermont seem to be in for the most. Expect this map to change,
as it's a tricky storm forecast.

Skiers and other winter sports fans will be happy, people holding out a slim hope ot finish fall chores will not:  Another bout of stormy winter weather is about to hit Vermont.

It's been an nearly unrelenting, remarkably early winter, and the next episode consists of a very hard to forecast storm expected to hit Vermont Sunday.

When forecasters looked at the situation on Friday, it seemed the storm would go far enough to the south such that only the southeastern half of Vermont would be affected and even then, most places would come out with not too much snow.

This morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says overnight guidance has shifted everything to the north and west.  That means it appears even the northwest corner of Vermont will probably get a least a little bit of snow and schmutz.

At this point, a good chunk of central and northeastern Vermont will get the worst of it. These areas are now under a winter storm watch for most of the day Sunday.  In those spots, predictions call for four to eight inches of heavy, wet snow, possibly mixed with some icing.  That winter storm  also extends into  northern New Hampshire and western Maine.

Most winter storms in New England are hard to predict and never come out exactly the way meteorologists predict.   Sunday's storm has an even higher bust potential than most storms.

There's a lot of things that can screw up the current forecast, so take any prediction with a bit of a grain of road salt. First of all, temperatures through a pretty thick layer of the atmosphere from the surface to a few thousand feet overhead look like they're going to be right near 32 degrees for most of the storm and in most of Vermont.

Freezing rain or even a bit of plain rain could mix in especially in the valleys of southern Vermont, perhaps from very roughly Route 4 south. NWS Burlington thinks the heaviest snow will come down along the spine and east slopes of the Green Mountains from about Killlington north.

The snow is likely to be wet and heavy, which raises the fear of more power outages where the snow comes down the hardest late Sunday morning and afternoon.

The Champlain Valley is a wild card with this storm. Earliest guesses call for one to four inches of wet snow in that area.  However, if the storm keeps trending even a bit further northwestward, we could get a lot more. Or, if the temperature is a degree or two warmer than expected, rain might mix in.

Computer models still have not settled on a precise storm track, either.  It could go a little more to the north and west, causing more snow up north, or bringing in more warm air to change some areas to rain or freezing rain. Or, we could go back toward Friday's scenario, which would have far northwestern sections escape most of this.  So yeah, it's iffy.

The bottom line is to expect some lousy weather nearly statewide Sunday. Lousy, that is, unless you're into skiing or riding, because many of the ski resorts seem to be in for another installment of snow.

Wet snow is especially slippery to drive on, so you might want to consider postponing travel on Sunday, or taking off today instead.

And remember, I almost guarantee the storm won't play out exactly how I laid it out in this post.  This just gives you a general idea of where this is going.  There will be changes and surprises with this one.

There's no rest for the weary. Another storm will come along for the big travel day on Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. At this point, it looks like that one will be mostly rain locally, but you never know.

Much colder air and snow showers will arrive Wednesday night and Thanksgiving, so I'm sure there will be some travel issues during that time frame, too.