Storm Update: Lots Of Wind Still Coming, Lots Of Rain, Too. And Temperature Swings

Expected to p wind gusts with the upcoming storm. Widespread gusts
to 60 mph are expected in northern New York. The 45-50 mph
gusts in Vermont might be a little underdone in this map. There could
be local gusts to 60 mph or more in some downslope areas.

The forecast for the upcoming storm hasn't changed too much, but word to the wise: Charge up all your devices today.  Your power just might go out.

It was very mild and damp this morning ahead of the storm.  The temperature just before dawn in Burlington were at 58 degrees, not that far from normal for that time of day in July.

Most of us will stay very mild today as the storm approaches.  An exception might be parts of far northern Vermont and the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, where a stalled weather front is keeping things a little cooler. 

The drama comes in tonight with a steadier rain developing this afternoon while winds pick up this evening.  Channeling in the Champlain Valley will probably increase gusts to over 40 mph. Meanwhile, the western slopes of the Green Mountains are in for probably the hardest blow since the huge wind storm of October, 2017.

On some of those western slopes, winds tonight could gust to 70 mph, at least in a few locations.

The south winds will briefly pump very mild air into the region.  Amid the wind and rain this evening, temperatures in much of Vermont will stay in the 60s.  Burlington has a shot of breaking the record high for the date, which is 69 degrees.

To our south, in a broad area of the Mid-Atlantic States, a powerful squall line is expected to develop. ahead of the cold front in this very warm, humid air.  That's expected to cause widespread damaging thunderstorm winds and scattered tornadoes.  Some forecasters think a couple of the tornadoes down there could be rather strong.

There will be a lot of power outages and trees down from Pennsylvania and New Jersey down to the Carolinas.

We here in Vermont are north of the worst of that squall line. However, in this type of autumn storm, a thin squall line can develop along or just ahead of the cold front. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says computer models suggest such a thing happening overnight.

As windy as it will be down here in most places near the surface, winds will be absolutely screaming at hurricane force perhaps several thousand feet overhead.  This thin line of storms can in places "grab" some of those high level winds and bring them to the surface. In a few spots, this squall line will then cause some brief damaging wind gusts.

I think for many if not most of us, the strongest winds will come with that squall line/cold front. The strong winds with the front won't last long, but they'll pack a punch.

The wind is really coming from everywhere with this storm isn't it?  After the cold front goes by early tomorrow morning, temperatures will really crash. Readings are likely to fall 15 to 20 degrees within an hour or two after the cold front passes.

After the front, strong southwest winds will get going. It'll be the worst up in New York's St. Lawrence Valley and parts of the Adirondacks, where many gusts will probably go over 60 mph there. A high wind warning is up for that region.

In Vermont, winds will be a bit lighter, but still strong.  There will probably be gusts to over 50 mph in lots of places, with a continued risk of power outages. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph in some of the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains.

We're still expecting a lot of rain tonight from this storm.  Almost everybody will see one to two inches of rain, with a few spots getting more than that. Minor flooding is still expected along some rivers, and a flood watch is still in effect.

This kind of strong storm is relatively common in the fall, especially in October and November in the Great Lakes and Northeast.  It's an example of the "gales of November" illustrated in the  famous song "The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald." It's about a fatal shipwreck on Lake Superior during a savage 1975 storm.

In some ways, I am looking forward to tonight's storm. Not that I want damage and power outages and such. It's Halloween, so it will be an appropriately dark and stormy night, as they say.  There will probably be lots of creepy noises in the wind.

To get you in the mood for tonight, here's what I think is the perfect musical accompanyment for such a stormy night: