Big Storm About To Sock Vermont, Rest Of New England

Red sky in the morning, sailers take warning. True in this
case as a big storm is coming to New England tonight.
True, this view from St. Albans, Vermont this morning is
more pastel than anything else, but you get the point. 

A powerful nor'easter is poised to hit New England later tonight and Thursday, promising oodles of rain and wind for the entire region, including here in Vermont.

The nor'easter will develop off the Virginia coast today and track northward, making landfall on Long Island and probably going up through central or eastern New England tomorrow.

It will strengthen rapidly as it does so.  This could be among the strongest nor'easters to hit New England in October on record.

With a track and strength like that, the broad-brush forecast for Vermont is easy-peasy. Expect some heavy rain later tonight and tomorrow, and some gusty winds.

The devil is always in the details, though, so there are a couple interesting things to look for. The onset of precipitation will come in slowly.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking rain will make it into the western Adirondacks by 4 p.m. or so today, but not get to the northern Champlain Valley until perhaps 10 p.m..

Once the rain gets here, though, it will come down at a pretty brisk clip.  Converging winds in the Champlain Valley Thursday could enhance the rainfall. Many areas of Vermont, especially west of the Green Mountains,  will probably get close to two inches of rain, if the forecast plays out as expected.

A few spots could clock in with three or more nches, especially in southwestern Vermont That's a lot of water for an October storm.  The White Mountains of New Hampshire will block some of the storm's moisture from getting into the Northeast Kingdom, so less rain will fall there. Probably an inch or less.

Luckily, it's not that wet out there to begin with, so flooding should be minor.  The big problem will probably be in urban areas.  A lot of leaves will be falling during this storm, and that will clog up storm drains.

Watch out for flooded streets and deep puddles on your way to work Thursday morning.

The National Weather Service forecast for rainfall from this
upcoming storm. Some stpots could get more than two
inches of rain

As I said, it will be windy.  Ahead of the storm, southeast winds will gust as high as 35 mph today, even as Vermont pretty much remains precipitation-free.

Many nor'easters cause strong downslope winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains and it looks like this will happen with this one. It won't be nearly as bad as the downslope wind havoc of October, 2017, but it will still be an issue.

Winds tonight could gust in the 55 to 60 mph range, possibly a bit more, in some downslope wind prone towns like Mendon, South Lincoln, Huntington, Underhill, Cambridge and maybe as far north as Belividere.

As the storm moves east and then north of us Thursday, everybody in Vermont will share in the usty winds, probably going to 40 mph in gusts or even a little more.

Thursday will surely be a yucky day, with lots of rain, especiallyin the morning, strong, chilly winds and temperatures holding in the 40s.

If this were a little later in the fall, say mid to late November, we'd probably be getting an immense early season snowstorm out of this.

Even with this storm, you have to be a little careful.  Intense storms like the one that we are about to have can generate their own cold air aloft, which can turn rain to snow if the precipitation is heavy enough.

Although I think it's possible but unlikely a few snowflakes could make it down into the valleys, it looks like any snow with this will be confined to the highest elevations.

Right now, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is only calling for light accumulations along the ridge lines, it's possible a couple high spots in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains could end up with a surprising amount of snow.

We'll have to wait and see on that one.

Elsewhere, this strong early season storm will probably produce some damaging winds along parts of the New England coast. Some areas of central Massachusetts could get locally up to five inches of rain, which could produce some flooding.

Since the storm looks like it might go inland over interior New England, there might be a risk of some severe storms or even a coastal waterspout or two overnight in far southeastern New England.

Coastal flood advisories and flash flood watches are up for the New York City metro area, too.