Friday, February 15, 2019

Is U.S. Having A Cold Winter? Not Really, Despite "Polar Vortex" Hype

Moments like this - heavy snow falling amid subzero termperatures
in St. Albans, Vermont on January 20, might make us think
this winter has been particularly harsh. In the grand scheme
of things locally and nationwide, it hasn't been super bad
Remember all that hype about the "polar vortex" in January? That the United States was having a brutal winter?

In large part, it was hype. It's true that a few cities in the Midwest hit all-time record lows during that brief, sharp Arctic snap in late January.

But the first month of the year as a whole was the 29th warmest January on record or the United States. That's out of 125 years of record.

Which means we didn't exactly skip winter in January, but it was nothing historic, either.

Interestingly, in the rankings, right here in Vermont had the second coldest January, 2019 compared to rankings in all the other states during the month.  Vermont had its 57th chilliest January out of the past 125. That's still pretty close to normal, so it's no great shakes. Only Michigan, which had its 50th coldest January, was worse than Vermont.

No state in January was really uch colder than normal. Most of the west was warm, and California had its 10th warmest January on record.

Four cities in the United States did break or tie their all-time record low temperatures on January 31, writes Bob Henson in this Category 6 blog post. 

Henson cited weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera when he added this factoid to the blog post regarding the all-time record lows in the handful of U.S. cities on January 31:

"We've never gone so deep into January without an all-time cold record being set since global record-keeping began,' says Herrera. In contrast, in the Southern Hemisphere, where it is summer, January, 2019 saw two nations or territories and 47 stations set their all-time heat records."

Which means we shouldn't believe anyone who says global warming isn't happening because it was cold in Illinois in late January.

I think what made January seem harsh in the United States was that it was stormy. The United States as a whole had its 37th wettest January. Again, Vermont was a standout. The Green Mountain State and Rhode Island each had their eight wettest Januaries on record. No other state in the U.S. scored in the top 10 wettest.

Northern Maine was very snowy, Caribou had its snowiest January on record.

So far, February has been particularly chilly in most of the western half of the nation, so that will add an overall chill to the nation's winter as a whole. Places like Montana are particularly brutal. So far, temperatures in much of that state are running more than 25 degrees colder than normal, which is just beyond belief.

The West Coast is very chilly this month as well. Seattle is running 9 degrees colder than normal so far this month. Sacramento, California is nearly five degrees on the cold side.

However, any thought that this is a particularly brutal winter for the United States is hogwash.

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