Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Yay! Two Mixed Ugly Storms Coming To Vermont, But It's Much Worse Elsewhere

A sparkling clear winter day in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday. It was an
interlude between the storminess we've had all winter. Another
mixed precipitation mess, albeit relatively minor,
is due tonight across the state. 
The sparkling sunshine that graced Vermont yesterday is gone, replaced by  veil of high thin clouds.

Those clouds signal the next storm system, which will, of course, bring us more mixed precipitation overnight and tomorrow morning. That's been the pattern this winter, and we might as well close out the season with such weather as well.

By the way, another mixed storm seems likely by Sunday.

First, we'll get through tonight. This one won't be huge. It will be just another winter inconvenience. We've had lots of those.

Interestingly, it's worse to our south, and will be somewhat worse than what we're getting once it gets past us and heads toward Maine.

As has been the case often this winter, a storm is headed up into the Great Lakes by tomorrow. It's pushing a warm front towards us. This warm front is lifting mild air up and over the chillier air that is grudgingly moving away toward the northeast.

When this happens, snow usually breaks out and that's exactly what will happen overnight. The National Weather Service tells us to expect one to three inches in western Vermont and three to fie in most locations east of the Green Mountains.

There is a winter weather advisory for the eastern half of Vermont based on this forecast.

While most of this modest storm will come as snow, it will go over to sleet toward the end early tomorrow morning. There could be areas of freezing rain, too, but it won't last long in any one place and won't accumulate too much.

Just be prepared for some slippery travel for the Thursday morning commute, especially from the Green Mountains eastward.  By afternoon at the latest, it will be all over, except for a few lingering rain showers here and there. It will be mild, with temperatures hitting 40 degrees or so in the valleys.

Bottom line: This will be another inconvenient storm in the Green Mountain State, but certainly not Storm Of The Century.

IT'S WORSE ELSEWHERE

When the map on the National Weather Service home page has
lots of pretty colors, you know there's lots of storminess
across the nation. That is indeed the case today, as
the current map indicates.
This is a sprawling storm, and its impacts are much greater elsewhere than they will be here in Vermont.

Ihe Mid-Atlantic States, the storm has a better moisture supply than it will have up here in the north. Winter storm warnings are in effect for western Virginia, much of Maryland and southern Pennsylvania for four to eight inches of snow, followed by sleet and freezing rain today and tonight.

It has already been snowing and sleeting heavily in this area over the course of the morning. Federal offices in Washington, DC are shut down.

That snow will be heavy and wet. Plus, up to a quarter inch of ice is possible in some areas in the Mid-Atlantic. On top of the difficult travel

Further west, in the colder air the storm is throwing heavy snow into parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. Many areas in this region can expect six to 12 inches of new snow by the time this is over.  

This will probably be the snowiest February on record in Minneapolis. Other cities in the region are also having near-record snows this month.

Further south, the problem is also bad, if not worse. There's extensive flooding to report today in areas such as Tennessee, Mississippi and Kentucky. Nashville, Tennessee had already picked up nine inches of rain so far this month, which is a record for February, and more bouts of off and on heavy rain are forecast there through Saturday.

THE NEXT STORM

A new storm is forecast to gather itself together around northern Texas and then head toward the Great Lakes over the weekend. This one will be arguably the first of the season that has springtime characteristics.

Typically in March and April, storms cross the Plains and head toward the Great Lakes. These storms cause outbreaks of severe weather and tornadoes in the South, blizzardy snowstorms in parts of the Plains, and a mixed bag of conditions here in Vermont.

That's precisely what is forecast with the weekend storm.

In Vermont, we will stay relatively mild  - highs in the 30s lows in the 20s for the most part - Friday and Saturday until the next storm hits.

When this next storm arrives, it will probably begin as mixed precipitation Saturday night or early Sunday. Then temperatures are expected to get quite warm - well into the 40s with some rain Sunday. Then it will turn much colder again with snow showers by early next week.

If you want nice spring weather, you are going to have to wait awhile.

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