Tornadoes Are Appearing Farther East Than They Used To

Part of a rotating mini supercell looking north from Sheldon, Vermont on
May 4. This storm did NOT produce a tornado, though a tornado
watch was in effect at the time and a twister hit New Hampshire
that day. Tornaodes are increasing in the eastern U.S.

In this here blog thingy, I've remarked about the unusual number of tornadoes in the Northeast in 2018.

There's certainly no additional ones on the immediate horizon, but this year's Northeast mini-tornado alley might be part of a larger thing.

Scientists have concluded that over the past few decades there are somewhat fewer twisters in "Tornado Alley"-- places like Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas -- and more tornadoes east of the Mississippi River.

According to the Associated Press:

"Tornado activity is increasing most in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Ohio and Michigan, according to a study in Wednesday's journal Climate and Atmopheric Science."

Tornado frequency in the Northeast is low, but it has ticked upward.

"The study looked at changes since 1979. Everywhere east of the Mississippi, except the west coast of Florida, is seeing some increase in tornado activity. The biggest increase occurred in states bordering the Mississippi River," reports the AP.

This eastward trend in tornadoes is bad because the more eastern twisters are hitting in places that are more heavily populated than "Tornado Alley."  Also, people are more likely to live in mobile homes east of the Mississippi, and those homes are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes.

When you get a tornado warning, you shouldn't look for the tornado. You should get into a shelter. But people naturally do look for the twister, even though it's a dangerous idea. In the East, it's harder to see a tornado coming because there are so many more trees in the way. That could make tornadoes deadlier, too.

The eastern tornadoes are also more likely to happen at night, when people might sleep through warnings or otherwise be unaware a twister is approaching.

Scientists aren't sure why there's an eastward shift in tornadoes and can't specifically pin it on global warming. But, say authors of this study, the shift if consistent with climate change.

Tornadoes often form along or near a "dry line" which is a sharp usually north to south line with very humid air to the east and very dry air to the west. Climate change seems to be shifting the average location of this dry line eastward, so it makes sense that tornadoes would form more to the east as well.

Scientists want to do more research to see if the eastern tornadoes are indeed part of global warming's effects, or whether something else is going on.