Big Pattern Change Will Bring Cold Reality To Us Vermonters Next Weekend

Mount Mansfield and environs probably won't look like this later
this month, but in a about a week, I suspect there might be a little
snow or rime ice at the very top of the peak. 

It's going to be quite a warm week through Thursday here in the North Country, but don't get used to it. Winter is coming fast, and we will get a seasonable mini-taste of it by next weekend.

It's dank and drizzly today, and it will likely stay that way into Monday. But temperatures are at or a little above normal.

Tuesday and Wednesday will basically be Indian Summer, with highs right up there in the 70s.

Nights will be particularly warm. It'll be the last chance to keep windows open at night as lows will bottom out Tuesday and Wednesday nights to just around 60 degrees.

That's roughly normal for mid-summer.

Warmth has mostly dominated since May, and especially since late June, whe a northward bulge in the jet stream seemed to become almost permanent over the eastern United States.

This ridge will break down later this week to be replaced by a big dip, or trough in the jet stream.

This means it will turn cold. The details are still scant, but the upcoming chill doesn't look very out of the ordinary for mid-October. But it will be something we're not used to.

There's a good chance of hard freezes at night, and maybe a little snow on the mountain tops. It's unclear how long this cool or cold trend will last. But autumn is a season of see-saw ups and downs.

I'm betting we'll alternate between warm spells and increasingly harsh cold spells as we hurtle toward winter.

That's just the breaks here.

At least we here in Vermont aren't going to suffer through any kinds of dangerous or too-abrupt extremes this week.

The Central Plains and parts of the Midwest are in for some pretty bad flash flooding. During this week, especially today through Wednesday, a swath from Texas to Wisconsin is expecting three to seven inches of rain, with higher amounts in some spots.

This rain will fall on ground already saturated by a soggy late summer and fall. Lots of flooding is going to happen.

Meanwhile, a few spots in the northern Rockes, adjacent High Plains and the Black Hills of South Dakota are getting some fairly persistent snow over the next few days.

And a tropical storm or hurricane is likely to hit the Gulf Coast Wednesday or Thursday.

Yeah, good times.