Northeast Floods Peak Today, But Will Northern Vermont Miss Out On Rain AGAIN?!?

Parts of Pennsylvania are under a rare high risk area (in purple) for dangerous
flash floods today. Believe it or not, parched Vermont is under
the slight risk zone for flash floods. Torrential local downpours
could cause small areas of flash flooding, despite the dry conditions. 

So far, just some piddling little light showers have come through Vermont's Champlain Valley as of 3 p.m. Wednesday as we remain parched.

Meanwhile, parts of the Northeast are under a rather rare high risk zone for life-threatening flash floods today. 

I'm so wishing for something much milder than flash floods and much more intense than sprinkles, but for me, it remains to be seen whether that will happen.

The real news, of course, is today's flash flood threat, centered in central Pennsylvania and south central New York, down by Binghamton.

In these regions, it has rained and rained and rained this week and soils are saturated. There has already been some pretty serious flooding in this region. As I write this, thunderstorms are increasing again in super soupy air over Pennsylvania, so intense downpours are developing again.

The worst of the rain in Pennsylvania looks like it is, or soon will, fall in an area that has had a foot of rain in the past week.

This will be bad, and I'm sure we'll hear of more flash flooding damage in Pennsylvania and New York.

Already, there's big trouble. The famed Hersheypark in Pennsylvania  is closed today for the second time this week due to flooding. There's not much in the way of flooding inside the park, but the roads leading to it are under water.

The nearby Knoebels Amusement Resort is under water.

The weather pattern that has stalled for the past few days, keeping most of the rain to Vermont's south and west, is on the move again. This is why forecasters are insisting we'll finally get our share of rain later today and tonight.

The chances are still there. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing to our southwest, so we might get into the action. And, what is essentially a very weak cold front is in western New York, and is slowly moving east.

This, you would think, would be the focus of a pretty good band of rain coming through Vermont just ahead of this so-called cold front. Chances of that rain happening this evening are pretty damn good. Forecaster are insisting we will have somewhere around an inch of rain by Thursday noon. I have no reason to doubt them.

In fact, Vermont is under a slight risk zone for flash flooding today and tonight. That might seem strange, given how parched it is out there. But if any particular town or area gets hit by repeated downpours over the course of a few hours, small creeks could become scary, raging torrents. There was already a flood advisory for awhile in far southern Vermont this morning when a heavy batch of rain went through there.

But still. We've been burned before. Several times this summer, the setup seemed to indicate we Green Mountain Boys and Girls would get a good soaking, and instead, we get just some crappy light showers.

It's as if we've turned into this weird humid desert. The air is so sopping wet - you'd think we'd have a downpour any minute, but then nothing happens.

No doubt it has been a hot month here in Vermont, which has exacerbated the dry condition we're experiencing. Depending upon how the last few days of the month go, we could set a record in Burlington, Vermont for the hottest month on record, which would surely be a big milestone.

Burlington, Vermont has recorded 10 days so far this month with temperatures of 90 degrees or above. We're tied with 1999 for the second most number of 90s in the month of July. The most 90s in July came in the notoriously hot summer of 1949, when there 11 such days.

Of course, we still have a few days to go in July in which the temperature could get to 90 degrees again. No such days are in the immediate future.

But......

After a break this weekend the weather pattern looks like it's going to turn once again to the one we've had this week. That means the Bermuda High will once again strengthen, pushing all the way up towards eastern New England and southeastern Canada.

Meanwhile, another dip in the jet stream will probably form to our west.

This would put us in the hot, tropical air again. I'm guessing the flood plagued Northeast (except Vermont!) would be in for more dangerous flooding, since the ground is so wet and the air will be so humid next week.

The vague bright side, of course, is despite the terrible heat and humidity we're all sick of here in Vermont, there will at least be a chance of more showers and thunderstorms next week. Even if we do get that inch of rain tonight, we'll still need more precipitation.