Tuesday Evening Snow/Nor'easter Update Westward Jog, More Snow Vermont

I hope you like snow. Because you're going to get it.   

The National Weather Service has upt the ante for
the snowstorm expected Wedneday afternoon into
Thursday. Most of us can expect a solid six to 12
inches of snow with locally up to 20 inches
in the Southern Green Mountains. 

The expected track of Wednesday and Thursday's nor'easter has nudged a little bit westward according to computer forecasting models today, which means we can expect even more snow for Vermont than earlier forecasts.

I alluded to this westward shift in this morning's post, and that trend has continued this Tuesday afternoon. 

The winter storm warning this morning had covered all of Vermont except the far northwest corner. That winter storm warning has not been shifted westward to include the far northwest, including St. Albans and Alburgh and Grand Isle. 

The winter storm warning covers pretty much all of the Andirondacks in New York, too, as well as the New York side of the Champlain Valley.

National Weather Service forecasting centers throughout the Northeast have increased the amount of snow expected from this comimg very wet nor'easter, and some places are going to get buried. 

This is actually fairly common in March. It's still cold enough for snow, but the atmosphere is warming as we head toward spring. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and thus can dump more precipitation. If it's cold enough to snow,  you can get some whopping totals. 

The Capital District of New York is under the
gun with this upcoming storm, with a good
12-20 inch thumping there. Some of these
areas got 30 to 40 inches of snow in the
storm last Friday. 

You remember the three feet of snow in the mid-March storm last year. And we here in Vermont have had epic two foot plus storms in 2011, 1993 and other Marches. So, here we go. 

Not everybody in Vermont is going to get two feet of snow.  I'd say the vast majority of us won't. But a few places might.  

Places I think might join the 20+ inch club with this upcoming storm include the Green Mountains of southern Vermont, somewhat higher elevations of western and central Massachusetts, southwestern New Hampshire, and the Hudson Valley of New York below Glens Falls, especially in the high elevations just west of the river.   

Areas of New York just south and west of Albany got 30 to 40 inches of snow last Friday, and a lot of that remains on the ground. Those same areas could easily get 20 new inches out of this storm. Yikes! 

The exception to the more snow is expected than previously thought rule is southeastern New England, near the coast. With a more westward track for the storm, hugging the coast, it will be too warm for snow during most of the event. So it will be mostly rain there, especially east of Interstate 95. 

But they will have their problems in southeastern New England with high winds, battering coastal waves and such, all in an area left particularly vulnerable from the last storm. 

I still think some of this snow will be rather wet, and some areas of New England, including some of the warmer areas of Vermont, could see some power failures as tree branches snap under the weight of the snow.  The snow will be more powdery in higher elevations, especially across the Adirondacks, Green and White mountains. 

As far as timing goes, the snow in Vermont will spread south to north during the day Wednesday. It'll probably get to the Canadian border by mid to late afternoon, but not come down all that hard. 

Since temperatures will be near or just above freezing in valleys during the afternoon, I don't think the roads will be too bad, except in the higher elevations. 

It'll really come down Wednesday night. The snow will be starting to lighten up Thursday morning, but the roads will be a total mess. Plan on a lousy commute. Or don't drive to work at all. A lot of schools that planned to be open Thursday probably will end up being closed. 

As I mentioned this morning, the snow will keep going Thursday and Friday, and into Saturday across the North Country, especially along the western slopes and spine of the central and northern Green Mountains. 

The snowfall totals I described above just take us into Thursday evening. Several more inches of snow will fall, especially in the higher elevations after that. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of an additional foot of snow in some of the Green Mountain ski areas, like Stowe and Jay Peak, between late Thursday night and Saturday afternoon. 

Skiers and riders who thought the glory of powder days were over for the season are surely gleeful that they were mistaken. 

Early hints suggest another nor'easter early next week will go too far south to affect most of Vermont, but that's not guaranteed. We still have to watch that one. 

What looks more likely is we will get a relatively brief blast of Arctic air next Tuesday through Thursday with lighter snows and temperatures more typical of January than March. But it's March in Vermont, what do you expect?