Sunday, March 4, 2018

:Storm-Battered Northeast Might Get It Again Later This Week

This is what the massive nor'easter looked like on
Saturday off the United States East Coast.
The nor'easter that caused such destruction in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states Thursday, Friday and early Saturday is well offshore, but still huge. So huge that it's still harassing us somewhat.

This, as forces gather for another potential big nor'easter, though the next one likely won't be as big as the one we just had. More on that in a moment.

Along the New England coast, huge breaches in the sand dunes and other destruction left by the storm we just had, combined with the forces of that big storm still lingering offshore, are still creating bouts of minor coastal flooding.

Meanwhile, a weather disturbance coming from James Bay, Canada is being sucked into the circulation of that giant offshore storm.

That, combined with moisture and influence from the enormous ocean storm, is causing snow to break out in northern New York and much of New England.

It was already snowing in northern New York and northern Vermont this morning, and that snow will spread south and east into much of New England, except southwestern parts of the region today and tonight.

It won't amount to a lot -- a dusting to two inches, with locally more in the mountains - but it's a reminder that winter isn't over.

If you really need a reminder that it's still winter, we can look ahead to Wednesday through Friday.  Another nor'easter looks almost certain to affect us.

STORMY WEEK COMING

From WBZ: Waves continued to crash into coastal homes
in Marshfield, Massachusetts Saturday.
Some of the ingredients for the next wave of rough weather came ashore in California Friday as the Northeast was being trashed by its nor'easter.

The storm caused some debris flow and flash flooding in that state, especially near areas that had wildfires a few months back. Luckily, the California flooding and mudslides weren't nearly as bad as predicted.

The storm will continue to cause havoc starting today in the Plains and on east to our neck of the woods by the middle and end of the week.  

The storm was emerging into the central Plains this morning.  This storm has prompted blizzard warnings in South Dakota Monday and Tuesday. It's looking nasty, with forecasts for up to a foot of snow propelled by winds gusting to 60 mph. Winter storm warnings extend well into Montana and North Dakota.

Strong, dry winds south of the storm have prompted high wind and fire danger warnings from Nebraska to Texas. The fire danger today is particularly extreme in New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.

The storm will continue to head east across the United States, then start to transfer its energy to somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic coast sometime late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Our new nor'easter will then be born.

This far out, it's difficult to tell exactly how a nor'easter several days away will affect anyone.

Here are the early hints: It appears it will track along the New England coast and head on up toward Maine and New Brunswick, as opposed to heading off to the southeast like the last one. The upcoming nor'easter will have a little more cold air to work with than last time, so the chance of snow  are better.

Since the storm will probably track into southeast Canada, northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine are at risk for heavy snow, unlike last time.

Although this storm, as noted, will probably be not nearly as strong as the disaster on Friday, it will still pack plenty of wind, and possibly storm surges.

Given the fragile state of the New England coastline after Friday and Saturday's storm, even a mid-sized nor'easter like this one looks to be could still cause added damage along the shore.

I'm not sure everyone in areas of eastern New England that experienced 60 to 90 mph gusts in the last storm will have their power back by the time the new storm arrives. Plus, there's plenty of trees weakened by Friday's gusts that could come down in a new nor'easter.

Here's something of particular interest to us Vermonters: Early indications are the storm could slow down to a crawl as it heads up near Maine and New Brunswick. That type of scenario might mean only moderate accumulations in the Champlain Valley. But the setup would create wet west to northwest winds that would ride up and over the Green Mountains.

As that happens, lots of moisture can get wrung out of the clouds as snow over the mountains. Given that this would last a long time, it's possible parts of the Green Mountains could get one or two feet of snow out this, maybe even more. We're not sure yet, but it's something to watch.

I'm sure the forecast will change some between now and the time the storm arrives, so keep watching for updates!

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