Worst Part Of Irma Is The Storm Surge

Irma smashing Cuba on Saturday. The biggest threat
from Irma today is violent, dangerous storm surges
along Florida coastlines. 

Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys this morning and will continue staggering up the Florida west coast today and tonight, as has been expected.

You're probably seeing on social media lots of dramatic photos and videos of strong winds in the Florida Keys.

The wind will cause a lot of damage, to be sure. Irma's maximum sustained winds were 130 mph this morning, and hurricane force winds will extend through much of Florida over the next 24 hours.

But the real damage, the real trouble, still comes from the storm surge. I told you yesterday how vulnerable Tampa can be, but the storm surge is really going to be a problem all up and down Florida's coast.

If you want an illustration of how fast and scary and violent storm surges often are, watch the video at the bottom of this post of a storm surge coming into Gulfport, Mississippi during Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The film makers helpfully time stamped each scene so you know how fast it's going.

You won't see as many videos of that, since storm surges are so dangerous to be in. But I'm sure you'll see a few examples.  As I've said before storm surges cause most of the deaths and most of the destruction in most hurricanes. I doubt Irma will be an exception.

The storm surge had already started in Key West early this morning as the eye of Irma passed very close by. As winds gusted to 94 mph in Key West, low tide had barely ended and the storm surge was overwhelming what normally would have been somewhat low water. The storm surge was pushing right through buildings all around the Keys.

Expect the same within the next 24 hours in Florida cities and resorts such as Naples, Marco Island, Fort Myers, Clearwater, Tampa and St. Petersburg.

The storm surge along the Florida west coast is expected to be five to eight feet above normal water levels, and that will flood and batter thousands of buildings.

One dangerous thing to note is around Naples and Fort Myers this morning, strong offshore winds were pulling water away from the beaches. The water looked drained. This might entice people to come down to the beach to watch the spectacle.

But then the water would come back fast and furious when the storm surge comes along. People could be trapped. There were forceful messages on social media this morning for people to stay far away from the beaches until the hurricane is well past Florida.

On the east side of Florida, the storm surge around very low lying Miami Beach is forecast to run three to five feet, so that's a grave problem there, too.  Video was already emerging of storm surge flooding in Miami Beach.

Irma will finally weaken for good as it makes landfall in Florida and heads up into Georgia. Even there, tropical storm warnings extend all the way north of Atlanta. Flood watches and warnings extend that far north, too.

Meanwhile Hurricane Jose largely missed the northern Leeward Islands that were devastated by Irma.

But the news is, at least potentially, not all good with Jose. It was originally expected to be picked up and move north, where it would die in the North Atlantic. But it didn't get picked up and it's left to meander in the central Atlantic for a few days.

There's a chance, not an enormous chance, but a chance, that Jose could start moving west again and eventually pose a threat to the U.S. east coast.

That's not cast in stone, to be sure, but it's something to keep an eye on, more than a week from now.

We've still got our hands full with Irma

Here's that video of the Gulfport storm surge in 2005.