Irma Mows Down Islands, Still Eyes Florida. Also, Hurricanes Jose, Katia

Extreme damage on the island of Barbuda after
Hurricane Irma.

We're all watching helplessly as immense Hurricane Irma takes down one island after another as it mows its way slowly toward the Bahamas and probably Florida.

At last check, at least 10 people have died in the storm, and that toll is sure to rise.

ABC's Good Morning America quoted Gaston Browne, the Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda as saying damage on Barbuda is "unprecedented" and the island is "barely habitable."

Antigua suffered somewhat less damage than Barbuda. However, other news reports describe the island of St. Martin as 95 percent destroyed.

Scary videos of the destruction are at the bottom of this post. It must have been so frightening for the people caught up in this. Like being in the middle of a tornado. Although a tornado lasts just minutes. This wend on for hours.

There was damage in Puerto Rico, too, but luckily Irma's eyewall, the area near the center of the storm with the most vicious winds, skirted just to the north of the islands.

The Turks and Caicos are going to get nailed by Irma tonight and the Bahamas get it Friday and Saturday. Then we get to Florida. More on that in a second.

Irma early this morning still had sustained winds of 180 mph. It's been that strong for at least 33 hours, a new record long time for an Atlantic hurricane.

Extreme damage on St. Martin from Hurricane Irma

Irma looks like it could start a "weakening" trend starting this morning, but don't focus on that word "weakening." It's still very likely going to be an extremely powerful Category 4 or 5 hurricane all lthe way to the vicinity of Florida.

FLORIDA'S NIGHTMARE

Mandatory evacuations are underway in parts of Florida, particularly the Keys and areas around Miami Beach. Store shelves have been cleared of supplies like bottled water, batteries and plywood. Millions of Florida residents are either hunkering down or fleeing as I write this.

While the National Hurricane Center has for days been saying Florida is a potential target, they are now confident enough in their forecasts that they'll likely issue a hurricane watch for at least parts of the state later this morning.

Irma will begin to be felt in Florida starting Saturday, but to what extent?

That's still unclear.

The National Hurricane Center projects Irma to make landfall in the southeastern corner of Florida, near Miami early Sunday morning.

But remember, that Miami projection is just the center of the so-called cone of uncertainty. Various computer models put Irma in different locations this weekend, as is typical of trying to forecast a hurricane that's still three days away.

It's pretty clear Irma will take a sharp turn toward the north, toward Florida this weekend, but we don't know exactly when it will make that turn.

Basically, that means Irma could theoretically go up the west side of Florida, plow through the middle of the state all the way to Georgia, or run up right along the east coast of Florida, or in a best-case scenario for Florida, move northward off the east coast of the state.

Of course, if Irma did that, it would probably just slam into the Carolinas, causing plenty of havoc there.

VERMONT IMPACTS?

Since this is a blog based in Vermont, I'm sure some readers are wondering if Irma will eventually have any impact in the Green Mountain State.

The short answer is, nobody knows.

I'm just speculating at this point, but a worst case scenario for Vermont would be a dying Irma going right overhead, unleashing heavy rains that would cause flooding.

We've had quite a bit of rain over the past week, so soils are wet and can't absorb as much water as they could have a week ago, when we were having a dry spell.

But still, that worst case scenario is just me being Mr. Doom and Gloom. I'm sure there's a chance we'll get some rain out of Irma, but right now, there's no point in forecasting anytbing for Irma in Vermont.

After all, if Irma does have any impact here, it won't happen for another week or so.

JOSE AND KATIA

For the first time since 2010, there are a total of three hurricanes simultaneously spinning in the Atlantic Ocean. Irma, of course.

Then there's Jose. And there's bad news about this one today.

Jose's top sustained winds are 90 mph. It's expected to strengthen and peak in intensity at about 125 mph just as it's passing over or near the northern Leeward Islands. That, of course, is where Barbuda and other islands devastated by Irma are.

The National Hurricane Center expects hurricane and tropical storm watches will be issued for some of these islands later this morning.

I don't think survivors on those islands can take another hurricane. Here's hoping that it veers further north, and spares these islands. We'll see.

Hurricane Katia this morning was lurking off the Mexican east coast. Top sustained winds with Katia are 80 mph. Since the storm is sitting over very warm water and there isn't much in the way of upper level winds to tear it apart, Katia will probably strengthen.

Katia is basically stationary now, but is expected to start moving southwestward soon, then slam into the central Mexican east coast around Saturday.

Here's a heartbreaking video from Barbuda:



Here's some extreme winds on St. Martin from Irma: