Dread In Florida As Hurricane Irma Menaces The State

Devastation in St. Martin.

Now it's inevitable that giant Hurricane Irma will pummel Florida. 

Oh, yes, there's still picky little questions about its exact track, and exactly how strong Irma will be when it hits Florida, but we know now Florida is going to have a terrible disaster.

At least 500,000 Floridians have fled or are fleeing inland ahead of the storm. So, too, are thousands of people in coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Florida is experiencing gas shortages because so many people are either on the road, getting out of dodge, or stocking up on supplies of fuel for generators, or gas for their cars because they know service stations will be, well, knocked out of service by Irma.

Some of those picky details on Irma: It's still unclear if the giant hurricane will score a direct hit on Miami, or will it smash the Florida Keys instead. In some sense, it doesn't matter because almost all of Florida is going to experience hurricane force winds. But I suppose 75 mph is better than 150 mph.

As of this morning, Hurricane Irma had "weakened" to a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 155 mph. As I noted yesterday, this "weakening" means nothing. Irma will remain a powerful hurricane.

It's possible Irma will cross the northern coast of Cuba before striking Florida. That would be bad for Cuba, of course, but slightly good for Florida, as winds would decrease further - but still be terribly destructive.

However, sea water temperatures are very hot - much above normal - in the path of the storm through the Bahamas and south and east of Florida. Very warm ocean water is jet fuel for hurricanes, and Irma will probably take advantage of that and stay strong.

Right now, the National Hurricane Center is guessing Irma's top sustained winds will be near 150 mph when it reaches Florida early Sunday morning. By the way, tropical storm force winds will arrive well before then.

Irma is a huge hurricane in size as well as strength, so its wind field is huge, too. A bigger wind field means a bigger area is going to get hurricane force winds.

The biggest killer in hurricanes is a storm surge. The low pressure in a hurricane causes sea levels to rise, plus the hurricane's winds push massive amounts of water toward shore. Add enormous, battering waves to the mix and you understand why states like Florida, Georgia and South Carolina are kicking residents out of their coastal homes and sending them inland.

From left to right, Hurricanes Katia, Irma and Jose menace
the Atlantic Ocean

The chances of surviving a massive storm surge are low, and you can't send rescuers out in a Category 4 hurricane to try to save you. People idiotic enough to stay put in their South Florida beachfront home are on their own.

The storm surge heights are forecast to be five to 10 feet above normal high tide in the Florida Keys. The highest point in the Keys is just 18 feet above sea level, and the vast majority of the islands have elevations of ten feet or less.

Meanwhile, Miami Beach sometimes floods in just a full moon and no storms. (Sea level rise, largely caused by climate change, causes that.) Now imagine the six-foot storm surge forecast for low-lying Miami Beach. Yeah, scary.

"This is a catastrophic storm that our state has never seen," Florida Governor Rick Scott said.  

Meanwhile, Irma continues to island hop on its way to Florida, trashing the Turks and Caicos yesterday, and the Bahamas today and tomorrow.

So far, at least 14 people have died at the hands of Irma. This number will go up.

JOSE AND KATIA

Meanwhile, Hurricanes Jose and Katia are causing nightmares for other people, particularly in the northern Leeward Islands and in Mexico.

Hurricane Jose has strengthened to a major hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph. Jose will come close to islands such as Barbuda and St. Martin, which were devastated by Hurricane Irma.

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are up for those islands. I don't know what people are going to do there as so many homes have been blasted away by Irma. Where will they go for shelter?

Here's hoping Jose veers sharply to the north and largely misses those places. We'll see.

Hurricane Katia is still menacing the Mexican east coast. It's sustained winds were 90 mph as of early this morning and more strengthening is forecast before it makes landfall tonight.

Like Mexico needs another disaster. You might have heard about that huge 8.1-magnitude earthquake last night.


This is one of the gloomier weather blog posts I've filed in a long time. But, unfortunately, there's a lot of gloomy news out there.