Frost And Harvey In Vermont; Watching Irma

Just some of the computer model forecast tracks
for Hurricane Irma. The takeaway on this image
is that nobody has any idea yet as to whether
Irma will be a threat to the United States, and
if so, where. 

Feels like fall out there, doesn't it, as we open the month of September.

That sharp cold front that went through yesterday meant business and it's chilly. Most places were in the 40s this morning, with a few upper 30s. Expect a very cool day today, with temperatures in many spots not getting past 60 degrees.

Which leads us to the first real frost threat of the fall season. Most of us in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire will probably escape any frost tonight just fine, but not all of us.

There is a frost advisory for tonight and early Saturday morning in the Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, places where I'm sure some towns will get down near the freezing point overnight. I think there might be spots of frost in the colder, deeper valleys elsewhere in Vermont, too.

There's also frost advisories up for northern New Hampshire and parts of western Maine. 

Again, most of us, especially those in the Champlain Valley, will not get frost.  But it will be cutting it close with lows in the mid to upper 30s most places, and in the low 40s as you get a little nearer to Lake Champlain.  The record low for Saturday in Burlington is 38 degrees, so we won't be far off. i

The good news, if you're not a cold weather fan, is the temperature will rapidly warm up Saturday to around 70 degrees, which is just a little cooler than average for this time of year.

Saturday will be the nicest day of the Labor Day weekend, if you're a sunshine fan. Sunday is looking pretty wet in the North Country.

HARVEY INFLUENCE

A cold front from the west will lift some of the remnants of Harvey up into the region, so we'll get a pretty showery day. We could get a half inch to an inch of rain out of this.

Here's the irony:  It's gotten dry across Vermont and we could use the rain. After causing so much death and catastrophe in the nation over the past week, the remains of Harvey might actually do more good than harm in Vermont by giving us a needed rain storm.

More showers should arrive by Tuesday to give us more needed rain.

WATCHING IRMA

Hurricane Irma spun up pretty quickly in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Thursday and it's turning into a monster. It will be a major hurricane as it heads generally westbound in the Atlantic.

It's too soon to say where in the United States Irma will hit, if it hits at all. It's at least a week away from being any kind of U.S. threat.  The last thing we need after Harvey is another huge hurricane, so I understand why people are already nervous about Irma.  But it's way too soon to hit the panic button.

At this stage of the game, anyone along the entire Atlantic shoreline from the Gulf of Mexico all the way to New England should sort of monitor Irma, just in case.   Computer models have a zillion scenarios for Irma.

I think I can speak for everyone and say my favorite model is the one that curves Irma sharply north, missing any coastlines then brings Irma way up into the chilly North Atlantic where Irma would die a cold, lonely death.

But that's just one model.

From a historical perspective, the majority but certainly not all the hurricanes that formed in the general region Irma did ended up missing the United States. But that doesn't mean much either way for Irma.

Plus some of the most notorious hurricanes in history have formed about where Irma did, including Ike, which trashed Texas in 2008. They sure don't need another hurricane there.

Another hurricane that formed in the general area that Irma did was the Great New England Hurricane of 1938, known as the deadliest and most destructive hurricane in New England history.

I guess we'll just have to wait until next week to get a better picture as to what, if anything, Irma will do.