Tuesday Afternoon Storm Update: We're Still Screwed

I spent this Tuesday afternoon deluding myself.

My driveway in St. Albans, Vermont looked like it
should in March Tuesday. Wet, with kind of a mud
season look. But it's back to winter and shoveling
snow Wednesday and Thursday.  

It really felt like winter's back was broken. Temperatures were up around 40 degrees, the snow was settling and melting and I was able to get outside for an hour or two to start getting some early spring outdoor chores done.

Though there's still a good amount of snow and ice out there, enough of it has settled and melted so that I could start picking at the edges of projects that need to get done.

I could get on a roll with this outdoor work, but reality intrudes: We're still going to get that huge snowstorm in northern New England and New York. Spring outside work is going to be put on ice and stop for the time being.

It's back to winter for awhile.

The basic scenario of the forecast isn't much different than what I gave you this morning, but there are a few tweaks.

First off, we might be able to refine who gets the heaviest snow.  To me,  it looks like the central Adirondacks, a 50 mile wide southwest to northeast stripe across the middle of Vermont, part of northern New Hampshire, and western Maine.

In those regions, 12 to 20 inches still looks like a good bet, with local spots getting two feet or more.

To the northwest of that stripe, say north and west of a line from Saranac Lake, N.Y to St. Albans, Vermont, it looks more like an 8-16 inch dump. That's still pretty big, but that northwestern corner is far enough away from the storm so that snow amounts might be a bit less.

South and east of a line roughly from Glens Falls, N.Y. to Rutland, Vermont to Laconia, N.H. line, enough sleet, freezing rain and rain will mix in during the first half of the storm to cut snow totals to 12 inches or less.

In that band of the heaviest snow that I outlined, there could even be some thunder snow. The storm is so dynamic and will be growing so intense that lightning and thunder is not out of the question Wednesday night.  There might also be some lightning and thunder is the mixed precipitation zone just south of the heavy snow.

The heaviest snow, and the heaviest mixed precipitation will probably come down between Wednesday evening and before dawn Thursday.

As I mentioned this morning, the snow will probably be sort of wet and heavy Wednesday, but as the temperature crashes Wednesday night, the snow will get more powdery. And the wind will pick up big time, gusting to more thn 35 mph late Wednesday night on through Thursday. Between the falling, blowing and drifting snow, it'll probably be pretty hard to see out there on the roads Thursday morning.

If you like winter cold, you're in luck. Temperatures won't rise out of the teens Thursday, which is a good 20 to 25 degrees colder than normal.

The snow will taper off during the day Thursday. I'm still expecting a very cold night Thursday night, with many northern New England and northern New York towns below zero by Friday morning. It'll get into the upper 20s with lighter winds Friday, so that's a little better.

And on Saturday, it'll briefly turn thaw-ish, with temperatures brushing 40 degrees. Then it's in the deep freeze again until at least the middle of next week.

But, the snow will melt eventually. Trust me.