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| The aftermath of a 25.8 inch snowstorm in Burlington, Vermont in March, 2011. While the upcoming storm might not be as bad as that, it will still be a doozy, with more than a foot likely. |
After all, even before dawn broke, temperatures in many areas were already above freezing, and readings are heading into the low 40s this afternoon.
Spring has sprung, right?
Um, totally, TOTALLY wrong.
Winter storm warnings are still flying for northern New York, most of Vermont, the northern half of New Hampshire and western Maine and for good reason.
These areas are still under the gun for anywhere between 10 and 24 inches of snow Wednesday and Thursday. For many of these areas, this will be the biggest snowstorm of the winter.
Over the past couple of days, there's been a bit of an evolution on where the roughest weather will set up. You might remember a couple of days ago I was telling you I thought the heaviest snow would hit southern Vermont and New Hampshire
That's no longer the case.
For many days the computer forecasting models have indicated the storm would move from the Ohio Valley to the New England coast, all the while strengthening.
That forecast still holds, but each successive run of the computer forecasting models have nudged the path of the storm a little to the north.
That means the band of heaviest snow with the storm is more north than originally forecast, and the areas where sleet and rain would mix in have also moved north. I think the deepest snow in Vermont, for instance, will be north of Route 4, not along and south of that road like I thought two days ago.
As of Tuesday morning, the question is, once the storm gets to near the East Coast, will the core of the system travel roughly along Interstate 95, or roughly along Interstate 90, better known as the Mass Pike in New England.
If the storm takes I-95, the rain and sleet wouldn't make it too much north of a Glens Falls, to New York, to Rutland, Vermont to Laconia, New Hampshire line.
If the system opts for the Mass Pike, the period of sleet and rain and snow mixture could get as far as the southern Adirondacks and central Vermont.
Right now, my guess, with the warm air lingering in northern New England, the storm will go a little north. A brief period of sleet could make it as far north as Burlington and Montpelier, Vermont, though those places will get almost all snow.
The Adirondacks, the northern half of Vermont and much of northern New Hampshire are in for more than a foot of snow, as it seems now. Some towns might clock in near two feet, especially in the Green Mountains. I noticed the National Weather Service in South Burlington is guessing about 15 inches total for the Burlington, Vermont area.
Even in the north the first few inches of snow Wednesday will probably be rather wet and heavy, while snow later in the storm will be much more powdery.
Down toward Rutland, Vermont and White River Junction, enough sleet and rain might mix in, along with the snow being wet and heavy during the first part of the storm, amounts might trend down toward about a foot.
In New York's Capitol District, in far southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire, a good chunk of the storm could be rain. Due to the uncertainty, the winter storm watch in those parts has not yet been upgraded to a warning.
More to the south, there might be enough rain for street flooding, followed by a flash freeze Wednesday night.
While the amount of warm air that sneaks in during the first half of the storm Wednesday and Wednesday evening adds a bit of uncertainty to the forecast, aspects of the second half of the storm are much more certain.
As the storm gets to the New England coast, it will pull down some cold air from Canada and temperatures will crash Wednesday night into the single numbers and low teens. North winds will pick up, too, gusting to 30 mph by dawn.
If Wednesday's drive home will be rough, Thursday morning's commute in much of northern New England will be much worse. It'll still be snowing hard, it will be very cold, near 10 degrees, winds will howl from the north to create a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Visibility will be poor.
It would probably be a good idea if you can to start bringing work home with you so you can work at home instead of the office Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.
The snow will taper off southwest to northeast Thursday, lasting the longest on the western slopes of the northern Green Mountains.
Thursday night will be bitter cold, near 0, and Friday will only get into the upper 20s, pretty far below normal for March.
Temperatures will briefly get to near normal Saturday, up near 40, before another cold wave sends temperatures below freezing again Sunday through about Tuesday or Wednesday.
There's a chance of another storm Monday, but early indications are that one will pretty much miss New England. I'm kind of hoping it does, this is plenty of snow, thank you.
March can bring the biggest storms of the winter. The warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold. So warm air feeding into storms from the south often have more punch in March than they do in January, creating heavier snow when the warmth collides with the cold air north of a storm.
The result is some epic March storms. Of course, the granddaddy of them all is the Blizzard of 1888, which dumped up to 50 inches of snow on New England.
More recently, the Blizzard of March, 1993 poured two feet of snow on a huge swath of the country from north Georgia through New England.
The big Town Meeting Day snowstorm in Vermont in 2001 dumped 22.9 inches of snow on Burlington, Vermont. And in the epically snowy winter of 2011, an immense storm deposited two feet of snow on Vermont. Burlingon had its third biggest snowstorm on record on March 6-7, 2011 with 25.8 inches.
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