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| The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont issued this map that clearly shows the expected zone of heaviest snow (in red.) Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. |
Things won't be too bad during Wednesday morning, since the main show was still out by the Great Lakes early in the morning.
But the area of precipitation associated with the growing storm looked pretty impressive on radar as of 6 a.m. Wednesday and that will only get more impressive as the day goes on.
Everything is still coming together for a big blast of a storm. The storm center will continue strengthening as it moves out of the Ohio Valley toward New England.
A clash of air masses, with rich, warm, moist air riding up over increasingly cold air coming from Canada will help squeeze out a lot of precipitation. Plus, the storm is getting a lot of support from upper level atmospheric features swirling into the storm.
(I'm oversimplifying here, but you probably don't want to be bored by an intense science lesson, so I'll skip that part of the program.)
What you want is the bottom line, so here it is: It still looks like the heaviest snow from this storm will fall from the southern and central Adirondacks, through central Vermont, northern New Hampshire into western Maine.
In that zone, the consensus is anywhere from 16 to 26 inches is a very good bet. That, by regional standards, is an impressive storm, if not the ultimate record breaker.
To the north of that zone, snowfall will still be impressive, with 10 to 18 inches likely in the St. Lawrence Valley and northwestern Vermont.
South of a line from about Glens Falls, New York to Rutland, Vermont to a little north of White River Junction, Vermont to Laconia, New Hampshire some sleet, freezing rain and rain will mix in during the first part of the storm, cutting into storm snow totals somewhat.
I still think there might be some thunder snow in spots, though that's not in any official forecasts I've seen.
The best sign that any storm will be much more impressive than usual is when the Weather Channel's storm forecaster extraordinaire Jim Cantore shows up in your state. At last report, Cantore was at, or at least on his way to, Killington, Vermont to report on this snowstorm.
It was still pretty warm out there early Wednesday morning, with temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s, but those readings should slowly fall during the day in the snow zone.
From New York's Capital District, into far southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire and points south, temperatures won't fall much during the day today.
But regionwide, temperatures will crash tonight, dropping really quickly into the single numbers and low teens, and staying there much of Thursday.
The real story during the second half of the storm will be the wind. As the temperature drops, the snow which will have started out somewhat wet and heavy, will turn powdery. Strong north winds will get going as the storm really cranks up over New England.
Gusts will easily go past 30 mph, so there will be a LOT of blowing and drifting snow later tonight and Thursday morning. In fact, the winter storm warning has been upgraded to a blizzard warning in parts of western New York.
A storm is classified as a blizzard if there are frequent wind gusts of over 35 mph with heavy snow for at least three consecutive hours.
In Vermont, we'll come close to that, but not quite. Winds might not gust over 35 mph often enough to quite classify this storm as a blizzard. So the National Weather Service in South Burlington has not upgraded the winter storm warning to a blizzard warning.
But it will be pretty damn close to a blizzard. If you have travel plans tonight and Thursday morning, don't even bother. With the deep snow and the near zero visibility at times, it won't be worth the trouble.
Stay home and watch the snow fly past your window.
However, you might need to step outside for one thing: The National Weather Service in South Burlington raises an excellent point: Drifting snow could block exhaust fans in many homes, raising the risk of dangerous carbon monoxide building up in some houses.
Check the vents and clear snow away from them if it's piling up. The life you save might be your own. And your family's.
Once the snow stops, you might want to clear snow away from any fire hydrants that are near your house, too. And check on elderly neighbors during this storm to make sure they're OK.
The snow will slowly taper off Thursday, lasting into the evening along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.
By the way, the biggest snowstorm on record in Burlington, Vermont was 33.1 inches on Jan. 2-3, 2010. The biggest March snowstorm was 25.8 inches on March 6-7, 2011.
Burlington's snow probably won't get that deep during this storm. But then again, you never know.
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