Friday, December 13, 2013

HUGE Forecast Change: Pretty Good Snow Dump Now Likely In Vermont

Until early this Friday morning, I was unimpressed with the way the weekend storm was shaping up. I thought, judging from early computer models, that the bulk of the snow would go to our south, and much of northern Vermont would get maybe 2 to 5 inches of snow at most.
It might end up looking something like this in
Vermont by Sunday afternoon. Winter storm watch
has been hoisted for the state.  

I was WRONG.

Now that the storm that's eventually going to affect us has come ashore in California, we have better data, the computer models are better able to crunch the data, and now it looks like we have a decent snowfall coming Saturday night and Sunday.

Not a record deep snowstorm, mind you, but decent.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont is thinking six to ten inches of fresh powder with this in Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire, with locally more in the mountains.

A winter storm watch is up for Vermont from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. 

The forecast has changed because now that the computer models can study this further, the storm is expected to grow stronger, and hug the coast more, than previously thought. Previous forecasts had the storm weaker and more out to sea.

Before we get to Saturday night and Sunday's storm, we have other trouble to deal with. This Friday morning, watch out for snow showers and briefly blinding snow squalls on the way to work. They could make the roads quite icy and dangerous.

Also, it's going to get bitterly, bitterly cold as temperatures fall through the teens and single numbers this afternoon, and below zero tonight. It'll be just a few degrees below zero in the Champlain Valley, and close to 20 below Saturday morning in the coldest mountain hollows.

Winter is here, that's for sure!!

1 comment:

  1. Matt, I just discovered this blog this evening, and I can't tell you how happy I am about it. I used to rely heavily on your BFP blog and was extremely disappointed when I learned you had parted ways. Thank goodness you've kept up blogging on weather-- and with no paywall restrictions!!

    Like probably all of your fans, I'm no meteorological expert, but since I live halfway between here and nowhere in VT, the very location-specific weather reports in the papers and on TV are totally unsatisfying-- and often way too simplified. I mean, really, we're New Englanders, for crying out loud. We've known what "wind chill" is from childhood, and reporting about "feels like" temperatures is just embarrassing.

    You have always hit the sweet spot for people who are interested in weather but don't really have the chops to decipher the super-technical explanations of what's about to happen, has happened or is happening. You explain this stuff better than any weather person I've ever encountered.

    Anyway, I'm a fan and delighted to have you back, so to speak.