Government Shutdown Is Stupid and Bad For Weather Forecasting And Research

The government shutdown is screwing around with the National
Weather Service, including areas of public outreach, science,
research and other critical areas. yes, the whole situation is stupid.

The government shutdown, as you know, is a real pain in the buttinski. It's affecting a lot of people, including the National Weather Service, and weather geeks like you and me.

We're still getting forecasts, alerts, warnings etc., but other programs are curtailed. Outreach, communications with the public, research, meetings, and other activities are on hold.

The boilerplate message during the shutdown from the National Weather Service is this:

"Due to the government shutdown, all public National Weather Service activities have been canceled or postponed until further notice. The National Weather Service will continue to provide critical forecast, watch and warning information to protect life and property throughout the shutdown."

I imagine moral is poor among NWS employees, but they're are dedicated to protecting the public. I've certainly seen no erosion in the accuracy or timeliness in the many various winter storm, flood, tornado, high wind and other warnings that have been issued since the shutdown began.

Still, starting salaries for the NWS are at $28,000, and highest salaries are not much more than $100,000 for some people in top managerial positions. These guys and gals are NOT rich, so I'm sure they're all worried about how they will pay their bills.

One very regrettable effect of the shutdown is that National Weather Service meteorologists were barred from attending the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting this past weekend in Phoenix. This meant hundreds of scientists, including those from the National Weather Service, had to skip it. 

The Washington Post had this to say about the situation:

"'This meeting is where scientists hatch new ideas for lifesaving methods and warnings,'  said Dan Sobien, the president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization. 'Any delay in that research could someday cost someone their life, and that person could be you or me,' Sobie said. 

Not having NWS meteorologists there to collaborate 'will likely cost many more lives than the absence of any border wall, anywhere.'"

Sobien might be overblowing the situation, but he has a point: Scientists getting together a big meeting like the AMS annual do spark creativity and research, so the government shutdown probably helped stymie some needed weather and climate change research.

Not that the Trump administration  cares or takes seriously any scientific facts and research. Especially if it conflicts with their agenda. But that's another story. 

Another effect of the shutdown, at least for the AMS conference, is it has thrown scientific sessions and town hall meetings into chaos. (Bonus for Trump: He loves chaos, too!)  Because NWS personnel were in charge of convening many of these sessions, the were either canceled or they had to scramble to find substitutes

Weather and climate research is on hold, too, due to the shutdown:

Says Time magazine:

"Scientists and engineers working on projects unrelated to the day-to-day safeguarding of American lives and property have been sent home. Efforts within NOAA and NWS to improve weather modeling have been paused, as have continuing training programs for weather staff, both of which are essential to improving long-term weather prediction. For some forecasters, the standoff over the border wall is immaterial compared to the real progress that is being lost due to the shutdown."

National Weather Service meteorologists are working without pay.  The National Weather Service is, or was, one of the best places to work if you are a meteorologist. But these stupid shutdowns make working for the NWS less appealing, so the NWS risks losing the best and the brightest. 

Working for private meteorology companies is fine, but I worry about how research at these companies might be bent in the name of enhancing corporate profits. 

Here in Vermont, some data and services are  not available. Today, there was to have been a webinar out of the National Weather Service in South Burlington on understanding NWS radar images online. But that was canceled because of the shutdown. Sucks. The webinar would have been useful to me, and I'm sure quite a few other people.

The USGS monitors the Lake Champlain water level, and most of that data hasn't been available since the government shut down.. Their website frustratingly says:

"Due to a lapse in appropriations, the majority of USGS websites may not be up to date and may not reflect current conditions. Websites displaying real-time data, such as Earthquake and Water and information needed for public health and safety will be updated with limited support. Additionally, USGS will not be able to respond to inquiries until appropriations are enacted."
 
Worse, the government shutdown is making it hard or impossible to get good readings on the amount of water in the snow up in Vermont's mid and high elevations. I don't really know if someone is monitoring snow water equivalent, but the general public can't access it.

That data is important, especially as we move more and more into winter. You need to know how much water is in that snow to determine the potential for flooding from runoff during thaws.  This data helped the National Weather Service in South Burlington forecast flooding in Vermont just before Christmas, and just before the government shutdown. 

So yeah, the shutdown is lousy for weather geeks, too. I guess politics, um, trumps science, public knowledge, access to data, and government responsibility.

Today's Snowstorm: As Forecast, Huge Area Of East Coast Getting A Big Dump

It still looks like this will be
a common scene in the Eastern U.S. today.  

The forecast hasn't changed much from last night regarding the big snowstorm affecting the East Coast today.

There's a huge area under a winter storm warning from western Virginia all the way up through Maine.

Yeah, I'm adding unneeded stress to your holiday, since traveling is a big deal today, but what can I do?

As of 6 a.m. Wednesday, precipitation covered an enormous area from Florida to southern New England. From the Middle Atlantic States to Connecticut, the snowstorm had already started by dawn, and was spreading northward.

It'll cover most of the Northeast, including pretty much all of New England by this afternoon.

If you are on the East Coast, I'd pretty much forget about travel today, especially along and to the west of Interstate 95. The roads are going to be icy, and slick, visibility poor. Airlines, I'm sure, will have huge delays.

An ominous sign is that the airlines are waiving change fees on flights today. That's a sure sign they expect trouble from the weather.

As the precipitation arrives in the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England, it might start as rain. Don't be fooled, it will quickly change to a wet, messy snow.

I still think the deepest accumulations from this storm will go through the Hudson Valley of New York, especially near and south of Albany, the western half to two thirds of Massachusetts, northwestern Connecticut, and the southern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

There, a good 10 to 18 inches of snow could accumulate today and tonight.

This is a relatively brief, but very intense storm, so that 10 to 18 inches will come down mostly within 12 hours or so. That means very poor visibility on the roads, and highway crews will have trouble keeping pace with the accumulations.

There's even a slight chance of thundersnow in southern New England today or this evening. Because the snow will be heavy and wet, power failures from snapping trees and lines could be a problem in some spots.

Geez, let's really complicate Thanksgiving. No travel, no power for cooking. What else could go wrong? I don't want to know.

The predicted zone of heaviest snow has been pushed back to the northwest a little bit, so more of Vermont and eastern New York are going to be in the winter storm warning or winter weather advisory zone for 4 to 8 inches of snow than I originally thought.

Extreme southeastern New England will miss the snow, because the storm will move close enough to the coast to throw warm-ish air to that region. Expect a lot of rain and wind on Cape Cod and the Islands, though.

The storm will be departing on Thanksgiving, so road conditions are expected to improve during Turkey Day. With Maine and New Hampshire seeing the storm last, those areas will be the last to see the snow taper off and the roads improve Thursday.