Heat, Jose, Lee And Maria Keeping Us Busy

Satellite view Sumday morning shows Hurricane Jose southeast of
the Carolinas, soon to be Hurricane Maria in the center menacing
the Leeward Islands, and weak Tropical Storm Lee to the right. 

Quick Sunday update as the weather gets active again, though not so active here in Vermont.

The record high for today's date in Burlington, Vermont is 86 degrees, set in the hot September of 2015. That record could be challenged today as our long warm spell peaks.

Don't worry about any sharp cold fronts, though. Temperatures will slowly ease back downward over the next several days, but still remain warmer than normal. Little if any rain will come, either.

But the tropics sure are busy again! We have Hurricane Jose, still tormenting forecasters off the East Coast, new Tropical Storm Lee, which probably won't amount to much, and soon to be Hurricane Maria, which has a lot of people, including me, deeply worried.

HURRICANE JOSE

Hurricane Jose is still trudging northward, well off the East Coast. Many computer forecasting models predict Jose to steer directly toward New England, then take a hard right turn before it gets here, thereby making New England miss the worst effects of the storm.

Note that I said many computer models. That's because a few still take Jose into or at least very close to eastern New England during the middle of the week. The bottom line is that the Northeast Coast is guaranteed to have rip currents, battering waves, some coastal flooding and breezy conditions. There's still a chance it could get even worse than that so stay tuned.

Here in Vermont, we still expect minimal effects from Jose.

TROPICAL STORM LEE

This one developed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean yesterday. It is moving to the west or northwest. Strong upper level winds above Tropical Storm Lee indicate the system won't be able to develop much and could just dissipate in a few days. It doesn't look like much of a threat to anybody at this point.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA

Maria is the scary one. It quickly developed into a tropical storm yesterday as it organized itself remarkably fast. It's expected to become a hurricane today and a major one within a couple of days.

Soon-to-be Hurricane Maria is heading toward the central and northern Leeward Islands, and will probably be a major hurricane by the time it gets there. This, of course, is extremely bad because many of these islands were devastated by Hurricane Irma.

Maria is also a threat to the badly Irma damaged Virgin Islands as well. This hurricane is also a definite threat to Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

It's too soon to speculate on what kind of threat Maria could pose to the United States. But Maria is the one to watch and the one to be worried about.

Erratic Jose Still Raising Questions For New England

After weakening this week, Jose is showing signs of
restrengthening this morning northeast of the Bahamas
Could be a New England threat next week.

Maybe I was too quick the  other day to dismiss the chances of Tropical Storm or Hurricane Jose affecting New England.

Jose, now a tropical storm after being a hurricane for quite a long time, is expected to restrengthen to hurricane status soon. I talked yesterday about how erratic the path of Jose is, and that's still the case.

It's now sort of getting its act together in terms of where it's going, and that direction is basically north.

Factoring in a blocking high pressure system to the north, computer models have been nudging Jose's future northward journey westward. Kind of like Hurricane Irma's northward turn into Florida last week.

Nobody yet knows for sure if Jose will affect New England, and if so, to what extent. We do know that the Atlantic beaches are in for rough surf and rip currents from now on forward.

Eastern New England, especially, could be in for wind and rain from Jose during the middle of next week. How much depends on whether Jose comes close to or even over Cape Cod, or does it stay further east.

Some computer forecast models bring Jose ashore in southeastern New England. Many others do not. And there's wide disagreement on how strong Jose would be as it nears New England.

Here in Vermont, the effects, if they happen, will probably be less. Jose could bring us some rain. If it does, it's more likely to hit toward the east.

Lots of questions about Jose now, so sit tight and stay tuned.

Until we see what happens with Jose, Vermont will continue to get some nice late summer weather. The remnants of Irma brought in some rather high humidity, clouds and a few scattered showers and storms on Thursday.

Irma could squeeze out a couple more showers this afternoon. It will stay warm, with largely sunny days through early next week around here.

Meanwhile, a new tropical depression is forming way out in the eastern Atlantic. It'll be Tropical Storm Lee soon. It's also too early to determine where wannabe Lee will go and if it will affect any land.