A Remarkably Early Winter Coming To Vermont. Starting Thursday

My yard in St. Albans, Vermont buried in very early season snows
last November. For the second year in a row, winter will strike early
and hard in Vermont in November. Starting Thursday. 

Today, I'm going to whine about the Vermont weather, even though I fully understand that whining won't change a damn thing about the forecast.

November isn't really known for its beautiful weather in the North Country. Everybody realizes that, certainly including me.

Still, despite brief bouts of snow and cold,  I am almost always count on being able to finish buttoning up the yard for winter until about Thanksgiving or so.  Some years, it's a little earlier than that, but I can deal.

This year, winter is starting ridiculously early.   Like Thursday.

This won't be one of those brief bouts of wintry weather we get between periods of warmish weather this time of year. It's going to stick around.  Possibly until April, worst case scenario. Which means outdoor stuff and storm cleanup that needs to be done won't get done.

I don't think I remember an earlier onset to winter than this.  I thought last November, with big early snows was bad. This year is ridiculous.

It's possible there might still be a break in late November or December, you never know.  I'll get to that in a moment, but let's get into the specifics for the next few days.

A cold front is coming through today and this evening with a few rain showers and snowflakes on the highest mountain peaks. No biggie. Tomorrow will be chilly, with temperatures near 40. Again, not a crisis for this time of year.

Then, a powerhouse of a cold front will come through Thursday. A storrm will form along the front and move northeastward somewhere along the New England coast. This is a perfect setup for a snowstorm.

True, as Vermont snowstorms go, this won't be a blockbuster, but it will be a shock to the system. Thursday afternoon and  night, as it gets colder and colder, snow levels will drop lower and lower down the mountain slopes until it reaches the valleys.

With every storm, it's still not clear how much snow will fall in any given place.  If enough warm air remains in place, it's possible there won't be any accumulation in the warmest spots, like the lower Connecticut River Valley and perhaps the southern Champlain Valley, so says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

For now, the NWS is going with one to four inches of snow in the valleys, three to six inches in the mid and high elevations and six to nine inches on the mountain peaks.

Expect a snowy, icy, yucky trip to work Friday morning.

Early November snowstorms tend to melt away quickly, but not this time.  It'll stay cold, so there will only be a little thawing during the days in the valleys Friday through Sunday. I suppose if you're a skier, this is terrific news. The Vermont ski industry is certainly going to start their season with a bang.

The "warmest" day for the next week to ten days will be Sunday. Valley highs ahead of the next Arctic front will get into the mid 30s to low 40s. That's still chillier than normal for this time of year.

That next Arctic front coming through Sunday night will be a beast. Much of the eastern half of the nation will see near record cold with this early next week. That includes us here in Vermont. Record lows Monday and Tuesday in Burlington are in the mid-teens, and there's an excellent chance it will get that cold.

It's still unclear how much additional snow we'll get with that Arctic blast that starts Sunday, but I'm sure we'll get at least a little.

Cold, wintry air will linger until the end of next week at least. There are signs of more Arctic outbreaks following after that, but of course, that's very uncertain. Long range forecasts are always iffy.