Monday, July 18, 2016

Another Cold Front, Another Severe Threat In Northeast, Including Vermont

Storm over Georgia, Vermont on June 28.
Similar scenes are possible in
Vermont and other areas of the
Northeast today.  
 Sunday afternoon turned out to be a lovely summer day in Vermont after some early rains and rumbles of thunder in central and soutnern sections.

It's back to the storms today for a broad area of the Northeast, including Vermont. A few could be severe. Here we go again.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the target areas for today mainly through the northwestern half to two thirds of New England, most of New York and Pennsylvania and some of the eastern Ohio valley.

There, they're calling it a slight risk of severe weather, which is the second of five alert levels.

This means this outbreak of severe weather in Vermont and surrounding areas will be similar to the past few, including the one that blew through last Thursday.

Most of us will probably get a thunderstorm and some downpours today, but a handful of towns in NOAA's slight risk area, will have it worse, with damaging winds that will knock down trees and power lines.

There were already some strong storms coming off of Lake Erie in far western New York early this morning, so we know the risk is there.

As noted, the biggest threat from today's storms is damaging straight line winds, but large hail could come down in a few spots. There's even a very remote chance of a brief tornado anywhere in the yellow shaded area of the United States map in this post.

Anyone living in the yellow area of this map, including
all of Vermont, has a slight, but real chance of severe
thunderstorms today.  
The timing of the weather front coming in from the west is right. We'll be near the maximum heating of the day, which will add instability to the air this afternoon. There's strong winds aloft and a cold front approaching.

So yeah, a few towns in the Northeast, including Vermont, will get a good damaging blast today.

Much of the rest of us can expect at least some noise and dramatic clouds a good gush of rain. Although, as always, a few areas will miss out on the storms completely.

The Storm Prediction Center says the greatest threat of wind damage is in western New England and New York.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont, in their forecast discussion notes the entire state of Vermont and eastern New York is under threat this afternoon.

 But a fine reading of the computer models suggests that within this region, the highest chances of a a few powerful, severe thunderstorms are in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, and a strip not far from the Canadian border in the far north of New York and Vermont.

Another stronger risk area, the guess goes, is in the Hudson Valley of New York and the southern third of Vermont.

A simulated, computer generated guestimate of what
 the radar will look at aroudn 2p .m. today. Notice
all the thunderstorms heading into Vermont.Add caption
This suggests central Vermont could miss out slightly on the severest storms. But that's uncertain, I will emphasis. Everyone in the region should be aware of threatening weather and listen for severe thunderstorm warnings.

If you get such a warning or see a storm coming, get inside. It can get dangerous out there.

And as in the last chance of severe weather last week, don't even bother going out on the lake or up in the mountains for a hike today. Wait until tomorrow, when it will be cooler, less humid, and storm-free.

For the record, Wednesday will be sunnier, and slightly warmer than Tuesday, with no threat of rain

No comments:

Post a Comment