Hurricane Lane Nears Hawaii And The Islands Are Screwed

A view of Hurricane Lane from the International Space Station. Photo
by astronaut Ricky Arnold, @astro_ricky

Hurricane Lane is beginning to affect Hawaii and it's going to be a rough couple of days on the island chain.

Hurricane warnings are up for much of Hawaii, including Honolulu, which had gone 26 years without such a warning. It's rare for a hurricane to affect Hawaii this much, rarer still for such a storm to take a track that affects the whole state.

The eye of the hurricane probably won't even come ashore on any of the islands. You'd think that's good news, and it is. The core of the highest winds will miss. But the hurricane is coming close enough, and it's large enough to engulf most of the island in at least tropical force if not hurricane force winds.

How bad things get depends largely on whether an expected shift in its path to the north is strong or lame. A strong northward turn will really make things bad.  A less sharp turn will help keep the worst of the weather offshore.

Regardless on what happens with Hurricane Lane's track, storm surges and battering waves are a huge threat. Even worse, the island chain is mostly mountainous. Heavy rains will cause flash floods that will rush down slopes, carrying away everything in their path.

The flood risk is the worst part of this storm. The hurricane warning for Hawaii says the flood impacts have the potential to be "devastating to catastrophic."

The hurricane warning continues with a dire picture of Hawaiians might face with the flooding:
"Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water with underpasses submerged."

And that part doesn't get into the high risk of destructive mud and landslides.

As I mentioned, hurricanes don't often hit Hawaii, so they're not as prepared as say, Florida. Many houses might not be able to withstand the high winds. It will take awhile for relief supplies to get everywhere, too. Most food and other goods come into Hawaii via ship. If ports are damaged, this flow of goods might slow down.

"Be prepared to shelter in place with 14 days of food supplies and water and any other necessities," Hawaii Gov. David Inge said Friday.

Huge crowds Wednesday at Hawaii grocery stores.

Good luck with that. Residents had already cleared store shelfs of water and nonperishable food. If anyone needs more, too bad at this point, unfortunately.

The first island to get hit is the Big Island, where Hilo is located. Up to eight inches of rain had already been reported there as of Wednesday night, and some places could get 30 inches.

 Flash flooding was already occurring this morning in Hilo and much of the the Big Island. A good chunk of the island will get tropical storm force winds, which are between 39 and 73 mph

Stormy weather will continue to advance northwestward along the island chain as Hurricane Lane itself heads in that direction. Things will deteriorate today across the Hawaii. The worst of the storm will reach the Big Island by the evening and around Honolulu Friday or Friday night.

Yesterday, Hurricane Lane was a dangerous Category 5 storm, the worst you can get. It's slowly weakening as high upper level winds begin to suck the life out of the storm. But that process is very slow, and it's still a major hurricane. Even if the hurricane is a low end Category 1 off the coast of Honolulu  - nearly the best case scenario at this point -  it could still cause dangerous rains, surges and wind.  

Now, it's mostly a waiting game to see how bad things get in Hawaii.

On the brighter side, the Atlantic Ocean, unlike last year, is very quiet. Ocean temperatures are cooler than last year in the prime breeding ground for hurricanes. Plus, upper level winds that tend to squelch wannabe hurricanes are stronger this year than last.

Still, we haven't hit the peak of hurricane season yet and there's no reason to believe a destructive Atlantic hurricane can't still develop.  A weather disturbance is about to come off the west coast of Africa and could develop into something next week.

Stay tuned.