Sunday, February 12, 2017

Evening Update: Vermont Snow Tapers Off Tonight, But........

Jackson the Weather Dog takes measurements amid heavy
falling snow in our yard, St. Albans, Vermont during
this afternoon's snowstorm. 
As of 5 p.m. Sunday, the snowstorm has been playing out about as expected.

The storm's heaviest snow in Vermont began in the early to mid-afternoon and continued as I wrote this at 5 p.m.

The heaviest of the snow will taper off between 9 p.m. and midnight, but continue in a lighter fashion well into Monday, as expected.

The snow was really coming down at 5 p.m. at my weather hacienda in St. Albans, and that was the case across most of eastern New York and Vermont.

That "shadowing" effect of lighter snow along the western slopes of the Green Mountains has materialized, but the shadowing isn't quite as intense as I thought earlier.

As a result, forecasters have bumped up total accumulations from this thing slightly in the Champlain Valley.  Most places there can expect at least six to 10 inches of snow from this thing.

As of around 4 p.m., widespread snow amounts of three or four inches had already been reported in and around Burlington north to St. Albans, so accumulations will easily get to six or more inches with this, based on late afternoon radar trends.

Elsewhere in Vermont, a general 8 to 15 inches of total accumulation is still expected, with locally more in the mountains.

Heavy snow will continue in most places across Vermont well into the evening, then taper off southwest to northeast.

The worst of the travel hazards on the roads are now and on through the evening with deep accumulating snow and poor visibilities.

Definitely get ready for a tough Monday morning commute. It won't be snowing as hard as it did Sunday afternoon and evening across Vermont, but it will still be snowing lightly. Plus, the wind will have picked up dramatically, and as noted in the earlier post today, there will be lots of blowing and drifing snow.

The storm will, as expected, consolidate into a powerful nor'easter off the New England coast on Monday.

I'm still pretty sure the nor'easter will be too far east of Vermont to produce heavy snow, but we'll certainly get those gusty winds to 40 mph along with occasional light snow. The mountains in particular could pick up a few more inches during the day Monday.

Powder day on Monday skiers and riders!!!!!

There are some changes to the forecast for extreme eastern New England, which will still take the brunt of this storm

They've lifted the blizzard watch for Cape Cod and the islands. It'll still snow there and be extremely windy, but blizzard conditions won't be met.

That's the good news for them. The very bad news for them is that a pretty bad coastal flood event is likely Monday, especially on north and east facing coastlines from about Boston south.

It could get quite destructive in places like Sandwich and Eastham, on Cape Cod, says the National Weather Service in Taunton, Massachusetts.

Winds along the southeastern New England coast are still expected to gust to 65 mph or so

In Downeast Maine, the blizzard warning remains in effect on Monday.

I'm still expecting a break in the action Tuesday, and then things get interesting again Wednesday ane Thursday.

I'm sure it will snow again Wednesday and Wednesday night in most of New England, including all of Vermont, but nobody is sure yet how much.

As another weather disturbance comes in from the west, snow will break out again midweek, and then another strong nor'easter might try to form off the New England coast. Yes! The third one in a wee, if it materializes.  Definitely impressive.

What's not known is exactly where or even if that nor'easter will take shape, how strong it will be and how much snow it will bring. It all depends on how a disturbance coming in from the Great Lakes and another from the Gulf of Mexico interact, if they do at all. Stay tuned.

The weather finally turns quieter by next weekend. There are definite signs another thaw could set in within a week or so from now.

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