Vermont Thunderstorms Rumbled, But At Least There Are No Las Vegas Style Grasshoppers.

This "profile" in the sky looks like it's surprised bu something off
to the west. This is a thunderhead that passed north of
St. Albans, Vermont Sunday evening. 

Sunday's storms worked out just as expected - hitting most of us with a couple quick dashes of downpours, with only a handful of places getting nailed.

From what I could tell, there was a severe thunderstorm in Stowe around 3:30 p.m., based on reports of trees down there and an impressive radar return at that hour.

There was a report of some tree damage on Colchester Avenue in Burlington a little earlier in the afternoon.  For most of the rest of us, no biggie.

Except for some places that really got bullseyed by storms, the rainfall was inadequate, too. It was still fairly dry under the trees around my house in St. Albans, Vermont, despite two or three brief downpours.

And it was frustrating to see one thunderstorm after another go by a few miles north of my house on Sunday while most of them seemed to avoid me. Oh well.

There are chances of showers and storms Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday because of a slow moving cold front.  Similar to Sunday, most storms won't be severe, but there might be a couple strong ones mostly over New York Tuesday and mostly east of the Champlain Valley Wednesday, as forecasts look now. The timing and location of these storms could change as forecasts get updated, but that's the way it looks now.

As luck would have it, the timing of the front means they'd fire up pretty well over New York State Tuesday afternoon, wane before getting to my place in northwestern Vermont, then fire up just to my east on Wednesday. I can't catch a break.

At least I didn't have to contend with dense clouds of grasshoppers, like Las Vegas is experiencing

LAS VEGAS "LOCUST" PLAGUE



Grasshoppers swarming in Las Vegas. Photo via television station KSNV.

OK, they're not really locusts, but grasshoppers. But still, things always seem unique in Las Vegas.

National Weather Service offices all over the nation routinely release special weather statements on local weather hazards. The NWS office in South Burlington put out several such statements on Sunday regarding the thunderstorms, for instance.

But this statement the other day from the National Weather Service office in Las Vegas is a new one:

"Outflow winds from earlier storms over Nye County have just entered NW Las Vegas. Wind gusts betweeen 30-40 mph will be likely as these winds move through the valley. Watch for areas of blowing dust and grasshoppers which may limit visibility."

Catch that? Be careful driving through that area of wind because blowing grasshoppers might interfere with visibility.

And you think you had problems?

Grasshoppers normally make an appearance in Las Vegas this time of year as they migrate northward toward the central part of Nevada. But there's an extraordinary number of them this year, due to a wet and cool spring in that region.  (Well, wet and cool by Las Vegas standards, anyway.)

They're attracted to light, so they swarm around street lights and all those bright lights of Las Vegas. They're kind of gross looking in such large numbers. But on the bright side, they don't bite or carry diseases.

Here's a CBS News video of the grasshopper invasion

Major Storm To Cause Havoc In Much Of Nation Now Through Monday

Schematic from the National Weather Service of
what the large storm will look like on
waeather maps on Sunday. 

A real humdinger of a storm is widely expected to cross the nation starting now and ending in the Northeast Monday, causing practically every imaginable weather hazard.

It will become an intense storm by the time it reaches the middle of the country.

It is the first storm of the season that will have at least some characteristics of a spring season storm. But ironically, it will introduce what will probably be the last truly serious and rather long lasting winter cold outbreaks.

This storm will certainly have some impacts to pay attention to here in Vermont, but at least those effects won't be as serious as those in some other parts of that nation. I'll get into that a little further down in this post.  

ALREADY STARTING

The storm is just starting to get its act together in the Southwest and it's already making an impact. It snowed in Las Vegas overnight, the second time this week that's happened. Snow is not unheard of in Sin City, but it is relatively rare.

Last night in Las Vegas

The official half inch of snow that fell in the past 24 hours is the first measurable snow there in a little over ten years.

Parts of the Las Vegas metro area that sit a little higher in elevation got up to six inches of accumulation. As of this morning, it was still snowing around that region.

Northern Arizona, where snow is more common than in Las Vegas, is getting blasted. Much of that region, including the city of Flagstaff, can expected around two feet of snow. It was really coming down in Flagstaff this morning, so that forecast seems accurate.

The mountains of northern Arizona could end up with at least three feet of new powder out of this.

The storm will spread a swath of pretty heavy snow, with areas of strong winds and blowing snow into the central and northern Plains, and western Great Lakes over the next few days. Some of these areas have already seen record amounts of snow this February, and this will just add to the total.

FLOODING

Flooding is going to be a big time concern over a good chunk of the Southeast and in the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Actually, the flooding is nasty in this region even before the weekend storm arrives.

Storms all week have dumped several inches of rain on most of this area, and flooding is ongoing. Another three to five inches of rain is expected today through Saturday in the hardest hit areas of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and surrounding areas, so this will only make a bad situation worse. You'll continue to see the flooding on your news feeds for the rest of the week, I'm sure.

SEVERE WEATHER

Areas in yellow and especially orange can expect severe thunderstorms
and perhaps tornadoes on Saturday.

Warm, humid air has been streaming into the Southeast for the past few days. As this big storm enters the middle of the nation, it will only increase this wet, hot flow.

The approach of the storm's cold front, and the veering winds aloft associated with the storm are a good recipe for a burst of severe weather, which could include a number of tornadoes.

As The Weather Channel notes, the last day the nation had at least 100 reports of severe weather - bad, windy thunderstorms, tornadoes and big hail, was on November 30. Saturday seems destined to break that slow trend.

Widespread severe weather outbreaks are relatively rare in the winter, but they do happen. Once you start getting into late February, as in now, the chances of severe weather and tornadoes begins to ramp up, especially in the Gulf Coast states

So this potentially destructive initial sign of spring is right on schedule. The difference this time is the severe weather looks to cover more real estate than a typical February thunderstorm and tornado outbreak.

The severe storms and tornado risk will encompass the northern Gulf Coast states and the Tennessee and lower Ohio River valleys, which is a bit far north for a tornado outbreak this time of year. Note that the greatest risk for tornadoes is in the same spot as the highest flood risk. It's going to be a long three days or so in the Mid-South.

HIGH WINDS

Outside the severe weather zone, damaging wind will still be a problem. By the time the storm reaches the Great Lakes Sunday, it will be very powerful, and very large. This means high winds are likely from the northern Plains to New England to parts of the Southeast.

While I seriously doubt anyone will have the highest winds ever,  the large area included in the windy zone means power outages will be felt in at least a quarter of the nation. If you have stock in electrical line repair crew companies, you're in luck.

At this point, western New York looks like it might receive the worst of the wind. The National Weather Service in Buffalo is already saying that if things turn out the way they think they will on Sunday, there will be at least 12 hours of wind gusts in the 60 t0 70 mph range, which would of course cause a lot of damage.

PATTERN CHANGE

Often, when there's a particularly intense storm like the one forecast this weekend, it helps trigger an overall weather pattern change.  This looks to be the case here.

Weather outlook into early March looks cold, as all the blue
in this eight to fourteen day outlook indicates

Cold air has been bottled up all month in the western half of the nation, but it's beginning to look like this frigid air will expand.

In the closing days of February and especially the first few days of March, it's beginning to look like frigid air will envelop the northern half of the nation from Montana to New England. 

HERE IN VERMONT

As I mentioned above, this storm will certainly affect us here in Vermont. Of course, the forecast could change, but here's what it looks like at the moment:

After lingering light mixed precipitation today, it'll be dry and relatively mild Friday and Saturday. Then the action starts. Since this powerful storm is moving by to our west, we'll have a rinse and repeat of the recent pattern.

Saturday night, a little snow will come down, then transition to sleet and freezing rain, then rain by Sunday morning. It'll turn mild on Sunday as some rain continues.

There might be a few issues with ice jams in the rivers shifting around, so there could be some localized flooding. But the rain won't be heavy enough, the warmth won't be strong enough or long-lasting enough to create widespread high water. So that's good.

As the storm's cold front passes Sunday night, it will get colder with snow showers that will continue into Monday.

The big story looks like it will be the wind. It'll start with strong southerly winds, especially in the Champlain Valley and in the higher terrain late Saturday night and Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday, it will be windy from the west and northwest regionwide. It's a little soon to know precisely how windy it will get, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's gusty enough to bring down at least a few branches and power lines.

It's looking like it will get colder and colder after the storm. March seems like it wants to come in like the proverbial lion, with possibly subzero cold, bouts of gusty winds and wind chills, and maybe some periods of snow.

Will The Ball That Drops New Years Eve In Las Vegas Be A Snow Ball?

The last decent snow in Las Vegas in December, 2008. 

I live in cold winter wonderland of far northwestern Vermont and I can see Canada from my house.

Really!

Yet as I celebrate New Years Eve tomorrow, I might be dealing with less snow on the ground than my partying friends in the desert mecca of Las Vegas.

There's barely a dusting of snow on the ground where I live, thanks to a mega Christmas week thaw. But an odd storm is gathering strength, and could dump several inches of snow on many areas of the desert Southwest.

Depending upon how much moisture feeds into the very cold storm system, up to a couple inches of snow could fall on the Las Vegas Strip.

It does snow in Las Vegas every once in awhile, but not often. According to Dennis Mersereau in Gawker's The Vane weather blog, Las Vegas has had measurable snow 29 times over the past 100 years or so.

The most recent snowstorm came on December 17, 2008, when Las Vegas got 3.6 inches of snow. Their biggest storm brought 7.4 inches of snow on January 31, 1979.

This storm looks to be smaller, and there's still a chance Las Vegas, at least the downtown and Strip area, could miss out on most of the snow.

This storm is a turnaround for Las Vegas, which just this week ended its longest continuous streak of temperatures remaining above freezing. It lasted 381 days.

Other areas of the Southwest are also in for a snowy treat. High elevations, but really not that high, are in for snow near Los Angeles and San Diego. It often snows in the highest peaks east of Los Angeles, but the snow level doesn't usually fall to as low as 2,000 feet above sea level.

Winter storm warnings are posted very close to the Los Angeles basin. The National Weather Service says the snow could end up closing heavily traveled routes like Interstates 15, 8 and 10.

The Los Angeles Times says a few inches of snow might cover the normally sunny, warm Antelope Valley. People camping out overnight to get good views of the Rose Parade in Pasadena on New Years Day are urged to dress in layers as overnight temperatures will hover at or just above the freezing mark.

That's just it. Desert areas of California, and the Las Vegas metro area, aren't equipped for snow, since winter storms don't happen very much in that neck of the woods.

It's kind of like what happened in the Deep South last winter, when an inch or two of snow caused all kinds of havoc in places like Georgia, Alabama and far northern Florida.

Even if Las Vegas barely gets a dusting of snow, that could spell trouble. As the Las Vegas Sun notes, about 340,000 visitors are expected in Las Vegas for the New Year's holiday.

People expected desert weather might not be prepared for temperatures of around 30 degrees. And a dusting of snow could really ice up the streets, since Las Vegas doesn't exactly have a zillion salt spreading trucks ready to go.

The cold weather could freeze up water pipes, too, since houses in and around Las Vegas aren't insulated for very cold temperatures.

For the nation as a whole, it's been a very warm December until now, which is a contrast to last year, which was very cold.

But winter is making up for lost time. In addition to the Southwest snow, winter storm warnings are up for much of West Texas because of a forecast mix of freezing rain and sleet Wednesday.

Wind chill advisories are up for a vast area of the Northern Plains.

And that big thaw we had around my home in northwestern Vermont? It's over. After highs near 50 early Sunday morning, the temperature is forecast to only make it into the upper teens today.