Erika Still Dead(it) But Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Abound

Major hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena lined
up in the Pacific Ocean.  

The much-discussed Tropical Storm Erika, now dead as noted yesterday, is still a zombie torturing Florida.

The dead-ish storm is still producing gusty winds and heavy rains in Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba.

There's still a slight chance Erika will regenerate into a bonafide tropical storm as it heads into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but don't count on it.

That doesn't matter anyway. Winds will still gust to 40 mph in parts of Florida, and more importantly, drenching rains will hit the state.

As I said yesterday, to an extent that's good, because South Florida has been in a drought. But these tropical rains are too much too fast, so flooding is definitely a problem.

The remnants of Erika will probably eventually head into the Florida panhandle and the southeastern United States later this week with more heavy rain and possible flooding there.

Now, we have a new Atlantic tropical storm named Fred.

Welcome to the world, Fred!

Fred was a disturbance that came off the African west coast the other day. It developed remarkably rapidly after getting out into the Atlantic. Usually it takes a few days, but this one revved up.

The National Hurricane Center said Fred is only the fourth tropical storm they know of, out of many hundreds, that formed east of 19W longitude.

True, Fred was only packing winds of 40 mph early Sunday morning, but it's expected to strengthen quickly into a hurricane and threaten the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic over the next couple of days.

After that, Fred will head out into the open Atlantic, where it might encounter the kinds of strong upper level winds that destroyed Hurricane Danny and Tropical Storm Erika. Even if it survives, Fred poses no immediate threat to land after it leaves  the Cape Verde Islands.

PACIFIC OCEAN

The Pacific Ocean continues to be wild in the hurricane department. For the first time in modern history, there were three major hurricanes lined up in the central and eastern Pacific - Kilo, Jimena and Ignacio.

As you can see in the photo at the top of the post, these three hurricanes lined up are quite a sight on satellite photos.

Ignacio is the one that is being most closely watched. It is expected to skirt east and north of Hawaii, but come close enough to produce tropical storm force winds on the Big Island of Hawaii and other nearby islands. Flooding is a risk, too.

Tropical storm warnings are up for Hawaii, a place that has had a very stormy late summer, with near miss tropical storms and downpours aided and abetted by El Nino.

Hawaii is definitely not the sunny tropical paradise it usually is.

Tropical Storm Erika Is Kaput; Done In By Mountains, Upper Level Winds

Tropical Storm Erika, which earlier this week represented a real threat to become the potential first full-fledged hurricane to hit Florida in ten years, instead fell apart earlier this morning.

Since its inception, Erika battled shear, which is defined as strong upper level winds that tear apart the thunderstorms that make up the center of a tropical storm. Dry air also got pulled into the system, which further hurt Erika's chances of developing.
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What finally finished her off were the mountains of Hispaniola, the island that contains the nation of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Tropical storms and hurricanes weaken when they reach land, especially if those lands are mountainous.

Erika was originally forecast to skirt by Hispaniola, stay over water and potentially strengthen, but it hit land instead.

Erika will still be remembered as a terrible storm that caused a flood on the island of Dominica, killing at least 20 people.

The remnants of Erika are still VERY wet and still headed toward Florida. So while Florida won't get a hurricane, there could still be some flooding in that neck of the woods early next week.

On the bright side, the remains of Erika will probably dump fairly heavy rain on South Florida, which has been in a drought.

Florida's governor had declared a state of emergency in anticipation of Erika. He'll probably be criticized for "needlessly" putting state resources into hurricane preparation.

But, better safe than sorry. Florida would have been really screwed had they not begun preparing, and then Erika hit hard. I hope Florida residents don't get complacent.

The next time there is a state of emergency in Florida because of a predicted hurricane, and there WILL be such an occasion, let's hope people take it seriously.

I suppose Erika could regenerate after its remnants get north of Cuba and into the warm southeastern Gulf of Mexico waters. That's somewhat unlikely but possible. Stay tuned!!!!

Erika Struggles, So Does Pacific Northwest With Wind, Fires, Smoke

Rain forecast for the Pacific Northwest will tamp down
some wildfires, but strong winds inland this weekend
could make things worse.  

All weather eyes have been on what Tropical Storm Erika is up to as it relates to Florida, but the real weather trouble in the nation currently is in the Pacific Northwest.

Things will get dicier and weirder there over the next couple days, but first let's do a quick update on Erika. 


STILL MAYBE FLORIDA BOUND, BUT.....

Tropical Storm Erika was still struggling in the Caribbean this morning, battling strong upper level winds and interactions with land.

As suggested yesterday, the track of the storm is a little south and west of earlier predictions. That's making the already badly disorganized Erika struggle to maintain its identity as a tropical storm.

There's even a chance it could dissipate today.

If it survives, Erika is still expected to emerge over warm waters and lighter upper level winds south of Florida.

The predicted track of the storm seems to be much further west, and weaker than originally thought.

Instead of being near the Florida east coast, it now is forecast to head up toward western Florida. Maybe even more west than that. Current projections take it northward up the Florida pennisula as a tropical storm.

Which may actually be good news for South Florida, which is in a drought and needs the rain. If the track verifies, it's less likely Erika will become a full-fledged hurricane, because of interactions with land.

Forecasts for this storm keep shifting, so it's worth it to keep an eye out for Erika. I've outlined the current forecast thinking from the National Hurricane Center, but I still think there will be further changes to the forecast:

PACIFIC NORTHWEST FIRES, STORM

It's good news/bad news in terms of the ongoing fires in the Pacific Northwest, but since the weather there is about to turn more extreme, all in all I think it's mostly bad news, unfortunately.

A strong storm is expected to come ashore in that region over the next few days. It's unusually powerful for so early in the season. Usually you get stronger storms like this later in the fall and winter.

The good news is, it's going to rain up that way. Especially in the Cascades, where even the rain forests caught fire this summer it's been so dry. The National Weather Service in Portland, Oregon says this will be the region's biggest rainstorm since March.

This won't completely solve the fire problem in the Cascades, but a good one to four inches of rain isn't going to hurt.  The fires in the western halves of Washington and Oregon there will be tamped down because of this for at least a week or two, if not more.

The problem is many of the fires are inland, in central and eastern Washington, Oregon, and on into Idaho and Montana.

There won't be much rain with this storm there. But the storm is going to carry powerful winds. True, the humidity and clouds will be up, but the wind will make the fires awfully erratic.

Plus, we're talking VERY strong winds. High wind watches are flying for Saturday for gusts to 60 mph. Maybe even 70 to 80 mph in mountain passes. Talk about spreading fires!

In parts of drier Idaho and Montana, fire weather watches are up Saturday because of the gusty winds.

The western wildfire nightmare of 2015 is far from over, that's clear.

Dead Danny, New Erika Doing The Atlantic Tropical Storm Shuffle

Here's the National Hurricane Center's thinking on
the track of Tropical Storm Erika over the next
several days. This is obviously subject to change.  

If you haven't been paying attention to what's going on with tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean, you'd think they're just randomly changing the names of the storms out there.

Where once was Hurricane Danny, there's now Tropical Storm Ericka. At least they sort of traded places.

You might remember that small sized Danny Boy blossomed into a strong hurricane last Friday way out in the central Atlantic, with sustained winds reaching 115 mph at one point.

As expected, Danny encountered dry air and strong upper level winds as it headed toward and past the northern Antilles and quickly withered away into a harmless patch of disorganized clouds by yesterday.

Hot on Danny's heels was a much bigger patch of clouds heading west across the Atlantic. These clouds got organized, started rotating, and by last night, became Tropical Storm Erika, which is essentially picking up where Danny left off.

Like would-be Danny's intended path before he got blown apart, Erika looks like she wants to head to near or just north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eventually toward the Bahamas by Sunday.

Unlike Danny, Erika has a shot of surviving the strong upper level winds that are in the Caribbean and Atlantic this year. Erika is bigger in size than Danny, so its not so easily torn apart, and the upper level winds, or shear as it's called, aren't as strong as with Danny.

That said, the future of Erika is far from certain. Computer forecasting models sharply disagree on what Erika will look like once it approaches the Bahamas. It could fall apart. It could turn into a pretty strong hurricane. It could be a middling tropical storm.

And, there's a chance Erika could pose a threat to the southeastern United States coast, although some computer models curve Erika to the north away from the United States. Other models have a strong hurricane just off the southeastern coast menacing us.

This monster scenario is the one that I see most on social media, naturally. It's GREAT click bait.

Don't believe any hype with this just yet. Just keep an eye on it if you're in its very iffy path. Look here, and elsewhere, including the National Hurricane Center, for updates.

Meanwhile, remember how last week I was squawking about a potential Hurricane Kilo hitting parts of Hawaii?

In the immortal words of Emily Litella, Never Mind.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center had thought a hurricane named Kilo would develop and threaten the islands of western Hawaii this week. But Kilo has underperformed and is not much of a storm. It's also now not headed anywhere near Hawaii.

Of course, Hawaii is still not off the hook. Heavy moisture associated with El Nino, that periodic Pacific warming that's underway now, set off a tremendous rain storm in parts of Hawaii, including the Honolulu area yesterday.

The air became incredibly humid, leading to the heavy rain. The dew point in Honolulu at one point was 81 degrees. If the dew point is 70, it's considered awfully humid so imagine what 81 felt like, and imagine the supply of water available for the downpours.

There was quite a bit of flash flooding, road closures and damage. Not exactly paradise weather there.