Will This Be The Hot Summer Most Of Us Dreaded?

Jackson the Weather Dog on Sunday gave up recording
consecutive days of 90 degree heat in St. Albans, Vermont
and found a cool spot on the concrete floor of his
basement to escape the outdoor scorcher. 

I've fled the heat of the main floor of my house and am hiding in the basement as I write today's post. With me are Jackson the Weather Dog and Tonks, our doggie weather assistant.

When the weather makes people hide in basements, it's usually because a tornado is coming.

There is most certainly no tornadoes near me today in Vermont, but the heat sure is baking outside. Only one room of the house is air conditioned, but the basement stays nice and cool. So that's where I'm hiding.

All levity aside, this is getting nasty.

As I write this shortly after 1 p.m., nearby Burlington has reached 90 degrees for the fourth day in a row. It will be the seventh day in this young summer season with at least a 90 degree reading.  Normal for an entire year is five such days.

Forecasts indicate we could be in for two more 90+ days tomorrow and Tuesday before somewhat cooler air arrives later in the week.  

That would give us six consecutive 90 degree days, a record long streak of such weather for June, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  It would also tie for the second longest streak of consecutive 90 degree days in Burlington for any month.

Long range forecasts, admittedly not always accurate, suggest the much warmer than average weather could continue through the month of July.

This is all making me slightly worried that we here in Vermont will have our turn to get stuck under a relentless, dangerous heat wave that could last all summer. This is completely speculation on my partm and not based on any real science.

However, there does seem to be an increasing trend in parts of the Northern Hemisphere to have disastrous summer long unprecedented hot spells

Could this be our turn?  Only time will tell.

These heat waves over the past decade have been much more brutal, and much longer lasting than past heat waves. This is almost certainly made worse by climate change, which can contribute to hotter temperatures, and at least according to some scientists, favor "stuck" weather patterns that dont change for weeks or even months.

Some examples:

In 2003, a heat wave settled over western Europe for most of the summer. Temperatures stayed near or above record levels for weeks in August.  The heat killed 30,000 people, 14,000 of those in France.

A 2010 heat wave sent temperatures soaring to 100 degrees in Moscow, with the heat lasting weeks, killing an estimated 11,000 people.

As with any extended period of heat, these massive hot spells created massive droughts.

This year, an intense spell of heat is hitting Siberia. Actually, parts of that region near the Arctic Circle have been off the charts above normal with temperatures all year so far.

On Saturday the city of Verkhoyansk, in northeastern Siberia reached 100 degrees. If that reading verifies, it would be the first time on record a temperature has reached 100 degrees north of the Arctic Circle.

The normal high temperature in Verkhoyansk this time of year is in the upper 60s, and it can get to 90 degrees there occasionally.

I got a bit of a scare of sorts in 2018 when a strong heat wave enveloped Vermont, and especially Quebec in the first part of July.  The heat was persisted for nearly a week with an all time high daily minimum temperature of 80 set on July 2 that year.

Luckily, the heat eased after that first week of July, 2018, though temperatures remained above normal through the rest of the summer.

Long heat waves have happened before in Vermont, but not that  often. The worst was probably August, 1994, when 13 of the first 17 days of the month reached 90 degrees in Burlington. One of those days set the all time record high in Burlington, which still stands -- 101 degrees.

So, back to my question: Are we at the start of a summer long siege of heat and drought? The short answer is nobody knows. We'll just have to wait it out.

The maximum number of 90 degree days in any year in Burlington is 26, set in 1949, so a fairly long time ago.

The trend in recent years is a little dismaying, though, if you don't like hot weather. The last time we had a summer with a below average number of 90 degree days was in 2014, when there were only three such days.

Since then, it has ranged from seven so far this year, eight in 2017 and a yikes-factor 17 afternoons in the 90s in 2018. Have the "normal" summers of five 90s passed us by?

Probably not, but they will also likely become increasingly rare in the future, too.