Loopy, Wrong-Way Weather Pattern Keeps Heat At Bay. For Now

It tried to rain Friday evening on my still dry back yard in St. Albans,
Vermont, but it only amounted to a trace before the setting sun
blasted through the clouds.  I still have a shot of some
showers over the next few days. 

We can safely report it's not that torrid in Vermont for a change.

True, it has been a bit warmer than normal the past four days or so, but certainly not to the extent of that huge heat wave last week.

Still, Saturday was the 12th day in a row in Burlington that got to at least 80 degrees, so that's still an ongoing warm streak if you ask me.

There were some fears that heat would come roaring back by sometimes early this week, but that won't be happening, thank goodness.  At least the heat is delayed some in returning.

Credit a rather loopy, wrong way weather pattern for that.

The loopy part is a cut-off storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere that is stalling over or near New England. It's just a pool of cool air aloft, with light winds circulating around and around in a counterclockwise loop.

The fact that the this upper level circulation has cold air with it many thousands of feet in the air means we're in for daily scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.  The contrast between the relatively warm air at the surface and the colder air way up there will encourage those tall, billowy clouds to form.  The tall, billowy clouds, of course, unleash those scattered rains.

We've been settling into a drought, so the type of rain that's in the forecast won't help nearly as much as a good steady soaker would. But we'll take what we can get.

A few storms today in southern Vermont, and especially southern New England, might be strong to severe. It's more likely that any thunderstorms that blossom in the north will be garden variety.

There will be winners and losers in this pattern. A few lucky spots will receive over an inch of rain between now and Wednesday because they'll keep getting hit by these daily showers. There will also be the unlucky ones, in which, by chance, the showers avoid those towns.  The drier spots will get a quarter inch or less of rain, which sucks.

The loopy low over us means daytime temperatures through Wednesday will be at, or just a wee bit cooler than average. Nighttimes will be at, or a wee bit warmer than average through the period.

This upper level low will probably get out of our hair by Thursday or so, and a squirt of hot air will try to come in.  Its' uncertain, but Thursday might end up being a little on the hot side.

However, that's where the wrong way weather comes in. A so called "back door" cold front is expected to come in from the northeast. (Cold fronts normally come in from the west or northwest, that's why I'm calling it a wrong way front.)

It won't exactly get cold by next weekend after the wrong way front comes through, but at least it won't be super, super hot.  We'll just get more normal  to slightly warmer than average temperatures then.

I don't mean to imply the cut off low over us, or the back door cold front are extremely unusual. They aren't. Both happen from time to time in the spring and summer, so we're not getting anything totally weird.

Despite the breaks from the heat and dryness, the overall weather pattern  favors hotter and drier than normal conditions over Vermont and most of the rest of New England into mid-July.  If true, it means that current drought conditions over the region will unfortunately only worsen.