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| The regional weather map from the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has us mostly in blue, which means most of us are in a winter weather advisory for icy conditions later today and tonight. |
The temperature at 7 a.m. this morning in Burlington, Vermont was 24 degrees, a full 38 degrees warmer than at the same time on Tuesday morning.
But the amount of warming we're getting - about to get - has its limits, which is why the forecast for the next day or so remains decidely icy and gross.
Aside from a little light snow near the Canadian border this morning, it has been dry so far, but that will change.
Snow, sleet and freezing rain will move in this afternoon, and continue overnight. The snow will be confined to the onset of the precipitation today, and the end of it Thursday afternoon. Today's snowfall accumulation will amount to no more than a dusting, with perhaps one to two inches in the northern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom.
Obviously, snow isn't the problem today and tonight. The freezing rain and rain will be the issue. West of the Green Mountains, I'm pretty confident that temperatures will get above freezing later this afternoon and stay that way overnight. That won't solve our problems.
It will stay just barely above freezing. Which will keep it chilly enough so that rain falling on the ground left frigid by the recent subzero cold will freeze on contact. It will be miserable underfoot, that's for sure. Careful! Don't fall!
If you're driving home from work late this afternoon or this evening, be ready for some slippery driving. The salt shakers, as I call the Vermont highway department trucks, will be out. But it will be icy, especially if you're off the main roads.
This will be a particular mess in busy places like Burlington. The snow from the weekend storm isn't entire removed yet. It's still slushy, messy and snowy on the sidewalks and streets. As things ice up, it will be a major chore walking anywhere in the Queen City.
East of the Green Mountains, it will be a tossup as to whether the temperature will be just above or just below freezing overnight. The effect will be the same there, though. It will get very icy underfoot.
Where it does stay below freezing, forecasters still don't think the ice will accumulate enough to harm many trees or power lines, so there's that tiny silver lining.
Granted, all this is definitely not the end of the world for us winter-hardened Vermonters, but it's still a bit of a pain in the butt.
Thursday morning, temperatures might briefly soar into the 40s, especially west of the Greens, but a cold front will quickly come in. That will change the rain to snow from west to east during the day. That snow will be caused by a storm rippling northward along the cold front.
It won't amount to much. It looks like maybe a dusting to two inches in the valleys, with two to four inches possible in the mountains. Thursday snow will be enough to give us the second afternoon commute in a rowa that will have its winter challeges.
Everything will freeze solid again Thursday night. As I said yesterday, it looks like the ice underfoot will be a long term problem, lasting many days to perhaps even a few weeks.
The weather pattern will stay active into early next week. There will be chances of some snow almost every day, but at this point, it doesn't look like there will be any blockbuster, huge storms.
That said, it's a complicated weather pattern coming up, so there could be some surprises.
If you're bummed about the weather forecast in Vermont for the next day or two, join the club. But as is so often the case so far this winter, southern New England is getting it even worse.
There will be little or no ice down there, at least until after things freeze back up Thursday night, but there are other issues.
That storm I mentioned that will move northward along tomorrow's cold front will probably unleash a lot of rain on southern New England. Between that and melting snow and ice in some areas, there could be some flooding.
After a very wet 2018 in southern New England, that region is off to a very wet start in 2019. This January might be among the wettest on record in that region. (Here in Vermont, we've had more precipitation than normal, but it's not record-setting.)
Strong winds could hit coastal areas, too, on Thursday. Especially in areas that got the ice storm Sunday, that could bring down trees and power lines weakened by the storm a few days ago.
We're about halfway through meteorological winter, folks. It's all uphill from here. It will just take awhile.
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