Sunday, April 29, 2018

Upper Plains: Deep Snow To Fire And Floods In Just Two Weeks

Brush fire near Nisswa, Minnesota this past week. They went from snow
to brushfires in 10 days. Photo by Steve Kohls/Brainard Dispatch
Barely two weeks ago, we were talking about the deep, unseasonable spring snow on the ground in the Upper Midwest and Plains.

In mid-April, more than a foot of snow as on the ground in places like Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Green Bay, Wisconsin.

Now, we're talking both brush fires and floods in the same areas. How quickly things change.

About ten days ago, the weather pattern abruptly shifted to one that featured dry, warm conditions in the Upper Midwest.

In recent days, there have been concerns about brush fires. The snow melted super quickly, leaving behind expanses of dry, dead grass, weeds, shrubs and whatnot. It hasn't been warm long enough yet to green things up.

When it gets dry, warm and windy under these conditions, fires can erupt. I noticed Sunday people in large swaths of Minnesota, the Dakotas and surrounding states were under all kinds of fire alerts. Anybody stupid enough to light a match or toss a cigarette outdoors was likely to cause a fire.

Although showers will begin in some areas as soon as Monday, other areas will stay fire-prone for the start of the week. Areas near the South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa borders expect dry air, temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to near 40 mph on Monday.

Meanwhile, that rapidly melting snow had to go somewhere. Into the rivers it went. In the very same places where there's fire alerts, there are also river flood warnings. Most of the flooding is relatively minor, but in some places, it's kind of bad.

While parts of Minnesota burn in dry, windy spring weather, rapid snowmelt
is simultaneously causing river floods in some areas. 
Major flooding is occuring along the Big Sioux River near Sioux Falls, and the river is expected to crest at its third highest level on record.

Moderate flooding is expected along the Mississippi River near St. Paul, Minnesota.

The flooding is not expected to be the worst ever in most places. Similar late winter and spring conditions existed in parts of the Upper Plains in 2011, leading to record and near record flooding along the Missouri River, especially near Yankton, South Dakota.

This year, there will be high water, but nothing like in 2011, reports the Yankton Daily Press & Dakotan. 

Even though the grass is dry, the ground beneath it is soggy from all that melted snow and recent rain.  That means spring planting is screwed up at the moment.

Farmers can't get into their fields, so spring wheat planting is way behind schedule, Agweek reports. All is not lost, though. It's gotten drier this week, and farmers have a chance to catch up. Other crops, like corn and soybeans, don't go in yet anyway, so there's time.

Some rain is forecast for the Dakotas and Minnesota for most of this week, but it will be a Goldilocks rain: Light enough so that there will be little additional flooding, but heavy enough to wet down the dry grasses and encourage a spring green up.

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