Saturday, November 19, 2016

Saturday Morning Update: Winter Storm Warning Parts Of Vermont, New York

A parade went on as scheduled in Duluth, Minnesota despite
a snowstorm that's heading in our direction. I'm sure
Vermont skiers and riders are in the mood for a parade,
given the forecast. Photo by Andrew Krueger  
If you've got outdoor work to do in your yard still in Vermont, northern New York and the rest of the region, get it done today.

It's going to be gorgeous for this time of year in the North Country with sunshine and highs near 60. Springlike, frankly.

Yet, we're still on track for a big blast of winter starting tomorrow.    

The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning in the high and mid elevations of northern and central Vermont and in northern New York. That means winter storm conditions are imminent, not just chancy.

The winter weather will start in the mountains early Sunday morning and slowly spread toward, and then into the valleys.

The general idea of the forecast hasn't changed since yesterday. A sharp cold front will come in tonight, and a slow moving storm will develop over New England later tonight as well.

This sluggish storm will move into southeastern Canada over the next couple of days, continuing a cold, wet northwest air flow.

Almost everyone in Vermont will get some snow out of this, but the valleys will only get a little -- a dusting to three inches.

Mid elevations, say 1,000 or a little more, are in for four to eight inches of snow in northern and central Vermont and northern New York. The St. Lawrence Valley of New York will probably get more than that, with 6 to 12 inches expected there.

The mountains are going to get clobbered, as I noted yesterday. I can hear the cheering from the skiers and riders already.

High elevation snow totals could easily reach a foot, and I still think there might be spot two foot totals near some summits. (Jay Peak ought to get ready for this one, for sure.)

I'm still thinking the Monday morning commute is going to be bad almost everywhere in Vermont and northern New York. . The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont is considering putting out a winter weather advisory for the Champlain Valley for early Monday.

We won't get much snow in the valley -- one or two inches is my guess--- but the roads will ice over, nobody is used to this, and accidents will abound, for sure.

This will be a long lasting storm. Rain will change to snow above 1,000 feet Sunday morning in the region, and then go to many valley floors by dark.

For much of the time, it will be a wet snow, accompanied by gusty northwest winds of up to 30 mph. That could get some of us in trouble with power failures, so be ready for that.

It'll last through Monday at least, with off and on light snow in the lower valleys and sometimes heavy snow in the mountains, especially Sunday afternoon and night, and the first half of Monday.

Watch out in western New York, too, because the lake effect snow machine will really crank up. Places like the Tug Hill Plateau and other areas most prone to these lake effect snows could get up to two feet of new snow in the more persistent squalls.

It will be cold and blustery with scattered snow showers Tuesday. Wednesday will be chilly, and we're watching a possible new storm with maybe some mixed precipitation Thanksgiving. Wintry weather is here to stay for awhile.

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