That Light At The End Of The Tunnel Is Warmth

Remarkably, the snow that fell Monday along Route 17 in Buels
Gore, Vermont did not melt Tuesday, despite strong May sun
It was that cold! This snow will certainly begin to melt today,
and really go on Thursday. 

Once again, in May, for the fifth day in a row, it snowed Tuesday in Vermont.

It didn't add up to much, and only a few places got it, but it DID snow again.  

I also find it remarkable that I could see snow on the ground all day pretty much to near the base of the Green Mountains, despite a fair amount of sunshine. Yesterday, was certainly another chilly day!

However, I'm happy to report that, except perhaps on the highest peaks, it won't snow again anywhere in Vermont until autumn.  

The long awaited warming trend will begin a bit today, then go full speed ahead Thursday.  The next few days starting tomorrow will really only be around normal for May, with highs mostly in the 60s and lows in the 40s, but it will still feel dreamy.

It's frosty and freezy this morning just about everywhere in Vermont, as forecast. We're still not out of the woods with those freezes and frosts. Tonight will be problematic in that regard. But we're almost there.

Today will certainly feel better than it has lately.  After the morning frost melts, temperatures will shoot up into the 50s.  That's still cool for mid-May, but plentiful sunshine and winds that will be somewhat lighter than they've been recently will make it feel warmer than it actually will be.

Those light winds and clear skies, along with very dry air, means that temperatures will plummet again tonight. A few areas will be a bit warmer than last night. A few others that had steady winds all night last night will actually be colder tomorrow morning.

But that will be it. Buh-bye, cold wave.  In Vermont's banana belts, like the Champlain Valley, it looks like tonight's risk of frost will be the last until autumn. In the Northeast Kingdom, it can frost any time of year, so I will make no such promises for that neck of the woods.

During this transition into a warmer weather pattern, we have a decent shot of some rainy spells, which is good news in northwestern Vermont in particular, which needs the rain.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the timing and strength of these showers, but they are likely, - or at least possible  - omorrow night, Friday, maybe Sunday, then Sunday night into Monday.

Chance are also increasing that a solid period of summer-like weather could hit starting the middle of next week. It's certainly possible that temperatures could reach the 80s by the end of next week.  If everything survived this morning's frost, and survives tonight, there's going to be a mad dash on trees to fully leaf out over the next week or two

INTERESTING TIDBITS

When weather patterns get interesting, that often spells trouble for us in Vermont.  This soon to be ending cold wave is one example.

Over the next several days, several interesting developments are likely to appear on the weather maps, but they will have zero, or next to zero influence on Vermont's weather.

The first interesting bit is occuring well off the Florida east coast.  An early season subtropical storm is likely to form north of the Bahamas over the next several days. Hurricane and tropical storm season starts June 1, but as has happened frequently in recent years, tropical systems have been forming before this arbitrary start to the season.

If this subtropical storm forms, they'll name it Arthur.

Wannabe Arthur won't hit the East Coast, but some signs indicate it will merge with a non-tropical storm well off the coast of New England and become a powerhouse.  That could bring an easterly fetch of chilly air to the New England coast, but that chilly air is unlikely to come as far inland as Vermont.

Worse, this pattern could bring some coastal flooding, rip currents and beach erosion to parts of the U.S East Coast.

Out in the middle of the country, after a quiet first part of May, severe weather and tornadoes seem destined to ramp up again. April was a particularly busy and deadly month for tornadoes, so the past couple of weeks has been a nice break in that department.

The threat of severe storms over the next several days doesn't appear as if it will be as intense as some of those April outbreaks, but it's still something to watch.

Finally, there's another oddly intense pool of cold air that will be building near Hudson Bay and the extreme northern tip of Quebec.  Like the last batch of frigid air, it will be rather strong for this time of year.

Very much unlike the last cold wave, there is zero chance it will come blasting down on us. Instead strong westerly winds aloft will keep that cold air a good 1,000 miles away from us, well off to our north.

But if you still haven't had enough of winter, head to Hudson Bay or the very northern tip of Quebec. Hmmm. I'm not seeing much of an exodus in that direction, am I?