Storm Update: Today Still Looks Dangerous South; East Coast Danger Monday

Opening salvo: Huge hail in Del Rio,
Texas Saturday.  Tornadoes, high winds,
floods, etc are risks in the South
and East today and Monday. 

We're getting into the thick of the storm in the Deep South this morning and it will only get worse as the day wears on.

As expected, it started in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas yesterday, mostly with scattered reports of huge hail.  One supercell crossed the border from Mexico into Del Rio, Texas, throwing hail almost the size of grapefruit  down on that city last night. Baseball sized hail blasted a few towns in Kansas.

Tornado warnings were already flying this morning in northeastern Texas. This is the beginning of several waves of thunderstorms going across the Deep South this morning.

All of these storms will be dangerous, but forecasters are in particular watching central and southern Mississippi early this afternoon. There, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, supercells are expected to develop, the move across Alabama later in the afternoon and Georgia toward evening.

These are the storms that are most likely to set off strong, especially dangerous long lasting tornadoes. It's not certain whether these strong tornadoes will actually happen. But there is that risk.

Amid all this,  torrential rains and flooding are a very good bet across much of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. There's going to be a lot of damage and heartache in the South this Easter Sunday, unfortunately.

It's now becoming apparent Monday won't be that much better. The rough weather will have ended in the Deep South, but there will be trouble along the entire East Coast from Maine to Florida.

Severe thunderstorms are likely with a risk of tornadoes, will run from Pennsylvania to Florida, with the highest risk of stronger, longer lasting twisters in Virginia and the Carolinas, along with southeastern Georgia.  There's a chance that some of the Carolina tornadoes could be as bad, or nearly as bad as the ones expected in the Deep South today.

Even in pretty big severe weather outbreaks like this, most people in the affected zone will come out of this fine with little or no property damage. But people need to be weather aware in these zones, so if they are unlucky enough to be in the target of a severe storm or tornado, they can take cover.

In New England, there will be few if any severe thunderstorms, but strong, damaging winds will come through. Wind gusts could easily reach 70 mph in the New York City metro area and in the southern half of New England.

Further west, gusts in the 70 mph range are also expected in western New York. These kinds of winds will bring down lots of trees and power lines in heavily populated areas.  There's going to be a lot of power outages, and probably more than a few houses and buildings smushed by falling trees.

Southwest winds will be so strong that Lake Erie will tilt, with water piling up on the northeast corner of the lake near Buffalo.  Water levels will fall as much as seven feet on the western end of the lake, and rise by at least five feet near Buffalo. Battering waves will make things worse.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Vermont will be a relative island of calm amid all this but that doesn't mean we'll avoid trouble. While the highest winds will probably go by to our west and east, we will still get strong gusty winds.

Ahead of the powerful storm's strong cold front, gusty south winds will strike especially the Champlain Valley. We'll all get a pretty good slug of rain, with still a risk of some flooding up in the Northeast Kingdom.

When the cold front sweeps through in the afternoon, we'll get heavier, but relatively brief downpours, with maybe some scattered thunderstorms embedded.

The worst winds will come in right after the cold front. In Vermont, many places will have winds gusting to near 50 mph.  That's enough to topple some trees, especially since the soil is wet and loose this time of year, and with all the rain expected Monday. Branches and power lines could go, too, so be ready for that!

Things will calm down somewhat by Tuesday. It'll still be kind of windy on Tuesday, but not gusty enough to cause more problems.

Here's a video of the hail in Del Rio, Texas. I like the comment from someone in the video, "Insurance adjusters, beware." Indeed!