Storm Update: Slushy, Windy, Then Cold

That snowfall forecast map from the Natonal Weather Service
again.  Valley locations might just get a slushy coating
out of this, if current forecasts verify. Heavy accumulations
would be limited to the places about 2,000 feet above
sea level. 

As usual, we'll update the status of that expected storm now that it's actually closer to hitting us here in Vermont.

Since yesterday, it seems the forecast models have warmed up this storm locally just a smidge.  If that comes to pass, most places around here won't get too much snow, except in the high elevations.

There are a few winter weather advisories for snow. One is in the two southernmost counties of Vermont, where two to six inches of wet snow is likely at elevations above 1,000 feet.

Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks over in New York could get similar amounts.

The rest of us, at least those of us not way up high in elevation can expect one to three inches of slush and goop, along with a cold rain, at least during the main storm.

That being said, if the temperatures drop a degree or two more than expected late tonight and Thursday morning, heavier snow would still be in play.

In fact, I do detect a slight disagreement between the National Weather Service offices in South Burlington, Vermont and Gray, Maine.   The Maine forecasting office is a little more bullish on snow accumulation near the Connecticut River, which would imply a bit more snow in eastern Vermont than is currently being forecast.

But not much, and the differences are all just noise.

By the way, if you plan to venture to Quebec tomorrow, don't. There will be wet snow and strong winds up there, especialy from about Montreal north. It'll be pretty messy.

Some light snow and rain will harass us today, but the main show still looks like it will hit late tonight and the first half of Thursday.  

The storm center will be over Lake Ontario and will swing a strenthening front through here late tonight and Thursday.  This looks like it will produce a relatively brief, but heavy thump of precipitation.

As it stands now, it looks like that big thump of precipitation will mostly be a cold rain in the valleys, but again, don't be surprised if more snow enters the picture. Temperatures are marginal.  The front that is coming through will be frisky enough to possibly give a few of us a nice rumble of thunder or two.

Strong southeast winds ahead of this will cross over the the Green Mountains, and possibly produce damaging winds along the immediate west slopes of those Mountains, especially in parts of Bennington, Rutland and Addison counties.

Places like Mendon, Rutland, Goshen, Brandon and Starksboro could see wind gusts of 60 mph or even a little more than that.  Winds along the west slopes of the Greens further north than this will also be strong and gusty, but perhaps not quite as strong as areas further south.

After the storm goes by we'll get three days of chilly weather, and lots of snow showers in the central and northern Green Mountains.

Part of that will be coming off Lake Ontario. Lake effect snowstorms out in western New York are somewhat rare this late in winter because much of the Great Lakes are usually frozen over this time of year.

It's been a warm winter, so those lakes are mostly ice-free. This opens the door for a big lake effect snowstorm in parts of New York. The Tug Hill plateau, the snowbelt near the lakes not far from Watertown, could get up to three feet of snow out of this.

Nothing like that here in Vermont. The high elevation snow Thursday night through Saturday will be measured in inches, not feet.

After a chilly weekend, the seesaw continues with a quick burst of warmer than normal temperatures for the first half of next week. That's at least the way it looks now