Quick Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, issued this afternoon. An inch of very damaging
ice is likely in northern New York. In northern Vermont, ice could
get to near a half inch, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley.
This would definitely lead to some damage just not as bad as NY.

As always with big storms, there are a few adjustments and updates to the forecast for our upcoming nasty storm.

The ice looks like it'll be at its worst in far northern New York, where an ice storm warning is now in effect from Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

There, the rain is likely to come down harder than in Vermont, and the subfreezing temperatures might also last a bit longer in that area. Ice accumulation in the ice storm warning area should come out to be about an inch thick.

That's enough to cause really bad damage to trees and power lines.  Long lasting power outages are likely in this area. Southern Quebec and parts of Ontario are in for the same thing, so it will be totally awful there, too.

In northern Vermont, there's a slightly less dire but still serious ice forecast. Closest to the Canadian border, in northern Grand Isle and Franklin counties, ice is now expected to thicken up to between a quarter to a half inch of ice.

That much  ice would still bring down a lot of trees and power lines and cause pretty widespread outages. But on the bright side, it won't be as bad as 1998, and, if the forecast comes true, the tree damage won't be super devastating, just kinda bad.  It probably won't look like the wholesale disaster zone the way the trees did in 1998.  Be prepared for a lot of yard cleanup with this is over, though.

Click on this map and the ice storm map above to make them bigger
and easier to read. More than 2.5 inches of rain and freezing rain
is likely in northwestern New York, which is an incredible amount
for January. Northern Vermont is getting more than
 an inch of precip, which is still a lot for this time of year. 

In Chittenden, Orleans and Essex counties, there's going to be ice accumulation later Saturday night and Sunday morning, but damage should be relatively light, again, if the forecast comes true.

If it turns a little colder than expected or rain is a little heavier than expected, the ice storm effects could be worse than I'm envisioning here.

Needless to say, road conditions wherever there is freezing rain will be atrocious.

Pretty much all of the forecasted icy areas in Vermont are under a winter weather advisory. But I'm going to advise a little extra on this advisory.

Most winter weather advisories in Vermont tend to be taken by the public as no big deal. Just kind of nuisance winter weather. This storm will go beyond nuisance and be a real problem.

The only main reason I can see that there's not a more dire ice storm warning in Vermont is because the criteria for an ice storm warning is that most of the area affected will have at least a half an inch of ice or more.  It doesn't look like northern Vermont will quite reach that criteria, although a few spots, especially the far northern Champlain Valley will probably see around a half of ice or a little more.

Flooding is still a good bet, too.  Forecasts call for minor to as much as moderate flooding along parts of the Winooski and Mad rivers and the Otter Creek.  This won't be as bad as the Halloween storm of 2019, but of course you would be stupid to drive into any flooded road.

Flood watches are up for the northern two thirds of Vermont, except right along the Canadian border where the already mentioned ice will build up.

As you well know, all this is subject to change as more data comes in. I'll update again Saturday morning, and again as needed as the storm progresses.

REST OF THE NATION:

As expected, severe thunderstorms and probably some tornadoes have been bubbling up, mostly in Oklahoma and Texas.  These will continue to expand and intensify overnight.  Tornadoes and very severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous at night. You don't see them coming and people are sleeping and don't get warnings.

An expansive area of freezing rain was beginning to blossom from western Oklahoma all the way up toward the Great Lakes.  If anything, some of that ice storm could be worse than what we're getting

Also, flood watches remain up for a huge area of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and of course, part of our region.