Another Weekend, Another Tricky Vermont Storm Due

One depiction of the expected storm system this weekend
has it well inland over central New England. That would
give us a warmer storm, with an increased chance of
mixed precipitation rather than snow.

I'll take an initial crack at the next storm coming along to Vermont. True to form this winter, it's coming on a weekend. And, true to form, what will actually come from the sky is questionable.

As of this Thursday morning, it's too soon to really go into specifics.  This post will just be broadbrush.  I do know there's been a major trend northward in the computer models all week.

Back on Sunday and Monday, it appeared to me this next system would go by so far to the south that only southern Vermont had a shot of precipitation.

Now, the models are so far north that a mix or rain is in play. (The further north a storm goes, the more likely it will be warm enough for a changeover).

Like the last two systems, this won't be a blockbuster for us, no matter what type of precipitation falls. Early indications are most places would get a quarter to a half inch of rain or melted snow and ice. That's very similar to the last two storms, basically a mid-sized kind of thing.

Those two storms were all snow, so now we have a respectable, but not spectacular snow cover on the ground.  It's still early, so I don't know how much damage, if any, this next storm will do to that snow cover. In fact, some areas might get end up with a better snow pack than now, who knows?

The overall storm set up will be familiar to those watching how this winter has been going. One storm will head up toward the Great Lakes and a new one will get going somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic states or East Coast.

The latest predictions have this secondary storm taking an inland route through the Northeast. That would bring milder air north, which is what is making everybody question what type of precipitation will come down.

Jackson the Weather Dog sniffing out snow prospects for the next
storm in Vermont, due this weekend. 

On top of that, there's not a lot of cold air to our north in Quebec to feed into the system.

Any snow we get with this is most likely near the onset of precipitation Saturday, and near the end of this on Sunday, as somewhat colder air moves in behind the storm.

Obviously, there's still a lot of questions with this storm. If the trends keep bringing it north, this thing will be mostly rain.  If the forecast trends reverse themselves, a more southerly track would keep most of Vermont in the snow.

Because of the lack of cold air to feed into this system, any snow we do get will probably be wet and heavy.

After the storm, it will only be seasonably cold, or even a little milder than average for this time of year early next week.  If you want a brutal blast of frigid Arctic air, it's not coming within the next week or so that's for sure.