New England Storm: Forecast Steady As She Goes

Areas in yellow can expect six inches or more of snow out this storm. Most
of the orange areas can expect a foot or more, at least according to
this National Weather Service forecast. Note the light blue
in far northern Vermont. That represents an inch or less of snow.

We continue on with our winter routine of watching and waiting on the next New England snow and ice storm and speculating as to whether forecasts will turn out to be accurate.

One thing that gives me confidence in the predictions for this latest storm is how consistent they are.  They are virtually unchanged from yesterday morning. This, of course, does not mean we won't be surprised.  

This will primarily be a central New England and central New York affair, with many of those spots still under the gun for a good foot of snow, with maybe some freezing rain thrown in for good measure.

The winter storm warnings for this storm go from northeastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey, up through most of southern and central New York, and on into southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and northern Massachusetts.

As of this morning, a dangerous ice storm was going on in southern Ontario, western New York and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  Roads are a mess, there's already many reports of crashes, and people are worried about trees and power lines coming down.

That first wave of precipitation, in western New York, will slowly

Here in Vermont, it still looks like a tale of two climates, at least for a couple days. The southern end of the state is still in line for a good foot of snow. Up at the Canadian border, there will practically be nothing. We think.

In between, Rutland and Windsor counties have been upgraded to a winter storm warning, since a lot of that area has a good shot of seeing six inches or more of snow between now and Tuesday morning.

That ice out west probably won't make it to Vermont, aside from some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain possible overnight tonight in far southern parts of the state.

This storm will last a long time and winds will come from the east or northeast through most of it

That means the east slopes and summits of the Green Mountains from central Vermont south will be the big winners.  As mentioned yesterday, winds will be forced to rise up those slopes. Rising air cools. Cooler air can't hold as much moisture, so that wetness will come out of the sky as lots and lots and lots of snowflakes.

I could see a foot of snow falling as far north as Killington, and eight inches as far north as Sugarbush. No guarantees on this, but it's set up like that.

The first surge of snow will come at us during the day today, but it will gradually fade on its way into and through Vermont. By the time it reaches the Canadian border this evening,  expect basically flurries up there.

A stronger surge of snow will come down Monday as the storm consolidates along the New England coast. This is another tricky part, as the heaviest snow for these types of storms usually sets up north and west of the center.

But how far north and west of the storm's center?  The snow might concentrate a little further south and east in Massachusetts, or it could set up more in southern Vermont and eastern New York.  Or somewhere in between.

As the storm moves toward the northeast, this band of snow will be a moving target, so everybody in the winter storm warning area will get a decent blast of snow. It's just hard to tell who the big "winners" will be.

As the storm moves north, off the coast of Maine, I'm also wondering if that band of snow will move northward with it, coming into areas north of Route 2 in Vermont, especially east of the Champlain Valley. That's speculation at this point,  and a low chance of that happening, but something to watch.

There could still be some northern Vermont surprises, though the current forecasts of next to no snow on the Canadian border still looks good, and will probably be the outcome.

There's no big storms coming this week after this one goes by, but frequent disturbances will create chances for snow showers off and on through next weekend.