Records To Fall Amid Big Vermont Winter Storm, Arctic Cold Snap

Around a foot of snow could fall with this storm in the northern
Champlain Valley and northeastern New York. Lesser amounts
are due in southern Vermont, but sleet and freezing rain
will be an additional problem down there.

It was already snowing in parts of northern Vermont early this morning, the first small salvo in what will be a major winter storm later today into Tuesday.

I'm not just calling the upcoming storm major because it involves a lot of snow and some ice for this early in the season.  This will be, at least in some places, one of the bigger winter storms of the 2019-20 winter.

After the storm, we'll get into record cold weather, and some of the readings will probably be the coldest for so early in the season.

Let's get into the storm first.

The heaviest snow will come down in the northwestern third of Vermont, including the Champlain Valley.  Which is different than many winter storms, when areas outside the Champlain Valley get the most snow.

Northern New York will be in the heavy snow band, too. In these areas with the heaviest snow, 6 to 14 inches of accumulation is forecast by midday Tuesday.  A foot of snow really is a lot for this time of year.  These forecasts also call for deeper accumulations than predictions for this storm issued on Sunday.

By the way, Burlington has a shot of having one of its ten snowiest Novembers because of this storm. Number 10 on the list had 14.9 inches.  Burlington has already had 2.6 inches of snow this month, and the forecast calls for another 11 inches or so.  Plus, you figure it will snow again later in the month.

After sputtering light snows this morning, the snow will pick up in intensity this afternoon and especially overnight.  There will be periods when snow comes down at a rate of one or two inches per hour, which is a biggie.



You can always tell when it's going to snow by looking at
windshield wipers. Wipers were up off windshields in this
Burlington, Vermont workplace parking lot this morning in
anticipation of snow later today

South and east of a line very roughly between Middlebury and St. Johnsbury, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says there will be mixed precipitation overnight, changing to snow late tonight or Tuesday morning. 

There might be some accumulation of ice on trees and power lines in southern Vermont with this, but I think tree and power line damage will be on the light side. Still, there is the risk of some power outages down there.

After that epic storm on Halloween that cut power to 50,000 Vermont homes and businesses, I'm sure people are thrilled with this news.

The onset of precipitation in the south will be later than in the north, which will also cut down on the expected accumulations. Also, precipitation will probably not be as heavy as in the north.

The drive home this Monday evening will be tricky, and then just awful Tuesday morning. I anticipate a lot of school closures and delays. If you can work from home tomorrow instead of driving into work, that will be ideal.

It's not just us getting the winter storm, of course. Winter storm warnings extend from northeastern Ohio to northern Maine. Winter weather advisories extend much further west in a band extending from the Northeast all the way out to Nebraska and Colorado.

In Canada, Montreal is expecting a good eight inches of snow, and parts of southern Ontario are bracing for potentially their biggest mid-November storm on record.

Even more impressive than this winter storm is the cold that will follow.  One of the strongest mid-November cold waves in history is set to hit the eastern half of the United States, except Florida.

There will be lots of record lows with this, including here in Vermont.

The record low in Burlington Wednesday is 15 degrees and the record low on Thursday is 10 degrees.  Readings are forecast to get at least that cold this week.  Highs Wednesday will only be in the upper teens to around 20, which is actually colder than normal for the depths of winter in January.

The cold will stick around for awhile, as I've been noting   There will be a brief moderation Friday but that will be cut off by a fresh Arctic blast Friday night and Saturday.

Next week, the weather pattern does not look like it will be as extreme as this week. That means it still might be a little chilly next week, but not ridiculous like it will be over the next few days.