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| Current forecasts have far southern Vermont getting a HUGE dump with the oncoming storm, with up to two feet of accumulations in some spots. The Canadian border MIGHT miss out with only an inch or two, but surprises could happen! |
For us Vermonters, it's still looking like it will be a tale of two different worlds.
As it stands now, if you're along the Massachusetts border, you're going to get crushed. If you're along the Canadian border, you'll be asking what all the fuss is about. In the middle, we'll see.
Plus, there's usually surprised with these things. More on what will go on in Vermont in a minute. First, the overview.
I'm impressed by how far winter storm warnings stretch - all the way from Montana and Wyoming to far southern Vermont and western Massachusetts. It's quite a storm with an awful lot of moisture to be able to spit out that much snow. The entire winter storm warning zone is up for at least six inches of snow, with a few places possibly closing in on two feet.
Blizzard conditions are still likely in western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska, and also along the western shore of Lake Superior. What makes this storm rough, among other things, is there's a lot of wind with it. Even more important, it's not in a hurry. Which means anyone along the path of the storm can expect a long lasting snowfall. Or ice. Which heaps up the snow and ice even more.
As it heads east, there are some questions about how far north freezing rain and sleet gets. The worst of the ice looks like it will extend from central Michigan, through southern Ontario and into Pennsylvania.
The freezing rain in Ontario and especially parts of Pennsylvania looks like it could be bad enough to do a lot of damage to trees and powerlines.
In the Northeast, it looks llike the heaviest snow will go through central New York, including the Albany Capital district and central New England. Even there, question marks about. Some models give that area up to two feet of snow, with a good shot of at least a foot. Again, though, how far north does the freezing rain get?
If the ice goes more north, these areas will have less snow, with the trade off being more treacherous ice. (I certainly would hope for more snow and less ice if I lived in this area.) Right now it's looking like parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts could also have real problems with freezing rain.
The precipitation in the Northeast will come in waves and take quite awhile to pass. The original storm from the west will move in during the day Sunday. If you have travel plans that take you through central and southern New England, i.e. if you have to get south, do it today. You WON'T be happy if you try it tomorrow.
The rough weather, once it arrives during the day Sunday, will last into Tuesday. Monday will surely be a mess in much of the Northeast, with terrible roads, lots of flight delays and all the disruptions you can muster in a winter storm.
On Monday, there will be periods when the snow or schmutz comes down really, really hard in these area. You might see snowfall rates at times of two or three inches an hour in the storm's bullseye zone.
VERMONT IMPACTS
With every winter storm, I wonder what the surprises will be as the build up to the storm approaches. The biggest surprises will probably be in central Vermont, and maybe northern Vermont. That's the zone where we don't know how well deep moisture from the storm will infiltrate.
As it stands now, as of this Saturday morning, far southern Vermont is in the crush zone, with a good foot of snow or more expected between Sunday afternoon in the state's two southernmost counties. If no ice mixes in, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few two foot reports from favored spots in the far south.
The middle of Vermont is a wildcard. There will be a lot of opportunity for it to snow most of the time from Sunday night to Tuesday morning, with that lull Sunday night. But will the storm's deeper moisture get into central Vermont? Or will it be just light stuff?
There is a winter storm watch up for Rutland and Windsor counties for the potential for six inches or more of snow. But not a warning like far southern Vermont. There's still too many questions. Worst (or best, depending on your perspective) would be a foot of snow near Route 4.
Further north up to around at least Route 2 has to be watched, too. These areas are expecting only a few inches of snow, but a little jog north with the storm or its moisture, and more could fall there, to. Which will win out? Dry air from Quebec, or wet air from the storm? We need to keep an eye on that.
The east slopes of the Green Mountains could make out well, too. East winds with the storm will be forced to rise up the slopes, unleashing additional snow.
Those of us along the Canadian border shouldn't count on getting away scott-free either. As it stands now, those very light accumulation forecasts look like a good bet. But watch that storm track! Those of us who can see Canada from our houses still aren't yet guaranteed to miss out.
The National Weather Service in South Burlington has snow coming into southern Vermont midday Sunday and slow spreading north, getting to the north by late afternoon. It might not ever make it to the Canadian border at all, though, on Sunday night.
There will probably be a lull pretty much region wide Sunday night, but snow will pick up again Monday as the new coastal storm takes over. If anybody gets blasted by the heaviest snow, it would be on Monday.
This will all be good for the ski areas. Some Vermont resorts are in for a big dump. Those that miss out will get free advertising from the storm, and it will be cold enough to make snow, AND there will be minor systems coming through over the next week or so to keep replenishing things.
I'm sure the winter sports types are happy.
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